Modeling patterns of the factors that influence regional development of tourism and recreation

Structural analysis of the factors that influence development of tourism and recreation is quite an essential task, which is performed in order to identify the key factors that are most related to the development of a regional system on the whole. We used the methods of graph theory, structural analysis, path analysis, and econometric modeling. Basing on the official statistics, the opportunities of tourism and recreational activities in the Perm Region and innovations in this area were analyzed, as well as the main trends on the tourism market in the region. To analyze the development of the resort activity, as well as tourism in general, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of this type of activity, quantitative research methods, such as methods for constructing coherent information structures, a wide range of methods of econometric modeling, methods of mapping taxonomy, etc. were analyzed. A graph model was designed to identify the key factors that have the greatest influence on the development of tourism, as well as recreational activity in general. Basing on the model which determines the development of a system supporting decision-making in the field of tourism and recreation, it is possible to study the structures that are responsible for the development of the region in terms of tourism and recreation, in order to determine the stability of tourism economy and strategic planning. The system being designed involves encapsulation of an econometric model (simultaneous equations system) which is isomorphic to the graph. This approach allows the end user (analyst) to avoid the need to calculate the systems of simultaneous equations. Therefore, in this case the analyst will have to construct a graph, each node of which corresponds to a particular index, and perform subsequent analysis of the data obtained, avoiding the need to construct and resolve a system of simultaneous equations. The suggested software environment can be used by management structures of territorial entities and businesses for strategic planning and decision-making management in the field of tourism and recreation.