Modeling the tourism impact on the population investment behavior in the regions of the Russian Federation

Domestic tourism is rapidly developing under the sanctions today. This leads to the positive effects in many tourist-attractive regions, such as a significant growth rate in the construction of residential real estate with a stable population, a low level of housing affordability, accommodation of more than half of the tourist flow outside the DAC, outpacing wage growth fees growth rates of real estate prices. Thus, we can suggest that tourism industry influences on the investment behavior of the population through the acquisition of real estate for subsequent rental to tourists. The work examined 8 regions: Krasnodar krai, Kaliningrad oblast, Stavropol krai, Republic of Karelia, Republic of Tatarstan, Altai Republic, Rostov oblast and Altai krai for 2012-2022. To test the hypothesis, a panel data model (88 observations) with fixed effects and robust standard errors (HAC) was built using the Gretl, Excel, and Statistica packages. The constructed model confirms the research hypotheses about the significant (with a probability of more than 99%) influence of tourist flow on the number of residential square meters put into operation. This study confirms the strong influence of tourism on the investment behavior of the population in tourist-attractive regions of Russia. We can assess it as a situation with a potentially high level of risk for the regional economy considering the possible decrease in tourist flow, the duration of the cycle in the construction industry, established demand and prices in the real estate market.