Model audit of a regional strategy: analysis of coherence of target indicators

The strategies of social and economic development of Russian regions provide vectors, priority directions, quality and quantity characteristics of the regional development according to existing and predicted tendencies. Thereby in order to get realistic evaluations of strategic results, the relevance of coherence of the mentioned strategic papers grows. In this respect the importance of providing coherence of target indicators mentioned in strategic papers increases. The scientific novelty is determined first of all by the development of analytic approaches to form differential equations which describe the economic dynamics of key indicators of regional development based on Rostov region, and secondly, by the formation of a flexible approach to choose modeling tools according to the characteristics of the time rows. The paper uses the correlation analysis of statistical data, the scenario method, probabilistic methods. The authors have created regression and differential models “Investment - GRP”, “Investments - Cargo turnover of public transport”, “Cargo turnover of public transport - GRP”, which are applied to forecast, to analyze the economic growth in quantity and to check the coherence of target indicators. The application of the mentioned tools allows taking into account the dynamics of non-linear processes on the basis of verified time-spaced effects. The analysis of the results obtained from the model audit of investment effects makes it possible to draw a conclusion about the existence of internal contradictions between factual assumptions, which were applied in the target scenario of the regional strategy. Besides, the paper reveals that the optimal quantity of periods of high investments’ influence is 7 years and their return is not equal throughout the years and it decreases after the current period. The obtained results prove the importance of investment policy for the economy of the region and give the opportunity to evaluate the investments’ effect quantitatively. The presented models can be applied in either descriptive or normative approaches in economic modeling.