Childlessness tax: perspectives and composition of payers

In Russia, social support for children is being strengthened, but this does not raise the birth rate at least to the level of simple reproduction of the population. In the USSR, there was a childlessness tax at a rate of 6% with a per capita component of 150 rubles (with one child — 50 rubles), which was an effective incentive for population growth. The hypothesis of this study is possibility of reintroducing this tax, the goal is to strengthen tax incentives for births in addition to social benefits, the objectives are reviewing possible solutions, modeling the composition of taxpayers and tax rates. Leading Russian and foreign scientists and politicians also propose introducing the childlessness tax. The study compares per capita incomes of people by wealth deciles and by number of children, shows a significant drop in family income with an increase in the number of children. Modeling childlessness tax, the study proposes to target the middle class and the rich, i. e. the top three income deciles, concentrated mainly in capitals and large cities. The terms of the proposed tax provide for a personalized accounting of receipts, possibility of their subsequent use at birth and during upbringing children, similar to pension contributions and payments, as well as for childbearing medicine. Analogue of the gradual implementation of this tax could be Tourist Tax, as well as personal income tax progression in combination with an increased deduction for children. Based on statistical data for 2023, it could be 1 thousand rubles per month for young people under age of 30 by 2% tax rate, 4.4 thousand rubles for childless people aged 30–49 by 6% rate, 1.5 thousand rubles with 1 child by 2% rate, and the total amount for all proposed payers will make 1–1.65 trillion rubles per year.