Fuzzy multiple modeling in assessing the effectiveness of technological innovations: current methods and tools

The article presents the results of a study aimed at developing a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of technological innovations (TI) from the standpoint of non-stochastic uncertainty; at that, effectiveness is considered as a criterion of managerial decisions. The basis of the study is the provisions of the Fuzzy Set Theory, providing a multifactor assessment of effectiveness and the integration of deterministic, stochastic, and mental knowledge of the system. Methodological apparatus of fuzzy multiple modeling allows formalizing the mental judgments of decision makers using the language of mathematics, and due to this transfer these judgments to machine processing; thereby forming the prerequisites for construction of intelligent decision support systems in innovative process management in enterprises. The fuzzy multiple model for evaluation of TI effectiveness presented in the article is based on the following: the vector form of effectiveness indicator presentation; the implementation of the correspondence function between the key conditions of effectiveness (productivity, profitability, promptness) through a fuzzy logical conclusion; the ideas about the ontology of the innovation process and the effectiveness factors of TI that have been formed in theory and practice; the acceptable methods for construction of fuzzy models. The developed fuzzy model provides a multifactor assessment of the effectiveness of the technological innovation under study based on the significant market, production and investment characteristics of the analyzed TIs in the context of strategic aspects of an enterprise, taking into account the restrictions that are significant for the enterprise, as well as the current preferences of the decision maker. Implementation of the developed concept and the method of fuzzy multiple modeling in assessing the effectiveness of TI becomes possible provided that the appropriate instrumental support is provided. In the course of the study, the necessary software package was developed for implementation of the FMM W method both in practice and in the educational process; the basis of the software was a special software of the Fuzzy Logic class and the necessary settings.