Pandemic COVID-19 effects' assessment for tourism industry based on aggregate

The purpose of the paper is to suggest and test a method for the assessment of pandemic effects on Russian tourism in comparison with a number of other countries based on an aggregate of the contribution of this industry to the economy. The role and place of the tourism industry in the global economy, industry-specific aspects of tourism and the special significance of measures to support it in contemporary Russian economic policy are characterized. A cross-country comparative analysis of the aggregate of the contribution of tourism to the economy, which is calculated on the basis of three particular indicators, has been carried out. They are the contribution of the tourism industry to the country’s GDP, the share of tourism in the total number of jobs, and the share of spending by incoming tourists in total exports. Data from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) was used. The pandemic contraction and the subsequent recovery of the industry are described by means of the indices of the aggregate, where its value in 2019 is taken as the base. It was revealed that among the G20 countries, Russia ranks penultimate in terms of the aggregate of the contribution of tourism to the economy. At the same time, it proves a relatively small "compression" of the industry in 2020 and a low rate of recovery in the industry in 2021. The poor response of Russian tourism to the pandemic can be explained, firstly, by the comparatively small value of its initial contribution to the economy and, secondly, by government employment support measures taken in 2020. At the same time, a low rate of recovery of the contribution of Russian tourism to the economy in 2021 shows the need to improve the effectiveness of industry regulation measures and to study, for this purpose, the best world practices for tourism recovery in countries such as Mexico, Italy, Turkey and others.