Estimation of the volume of priced services to the population as a component of regional economy on the basis of economic and mathematical modeling

The author estimates the volume of priced services to the population of regions of the Central Federal District as part of the approach to assessing the effectiveness of the control subjects, which contains logically related steps of complex systems analysis and synthesis of solutions aimed at asymmetry alignment and conditions for sustainable development of regional socio-ecological-economic systems (SEES). The research process involves the formation of a generalized performance indicator in the chosen direction out of the plurality of partial indicators, taking into account their mutual influence through the pair of correlation coefficients and is defined as the ratio of the actual value to the standard value. The standard value is calculated by means of modeling the connection of an effective feature with the factors (conditions) of SEES functioning, built with the help of correlation and regression analysis. The author selects the standardized and normalized indicators of the volume of priced services to the population by activity types (13 indicators) as partial indicators of the effectiveness. Condition factors (17 indicators) are combined and related to social and socio-economic groups, each of them being significant, that has a strong link with the productive trait. The connection with environmental factors of condition and impact has not been revealed. The author calculates the coefficient of the harmony characterizing the imbalance of services provided to the population. The synthesis step consists in the search for the desired values of controlled factors in which SEES performance indicators would be compliant with the norm by solving a nonlinear optimization problem with constraints. Within the study for a number of regions the author presents required changes in the selected indicators by solving specific task in a linear form, which can be used as practical recommendations to the authorities of different levels. The data of the Russian state statistics service for 2007-2015 are used as the information base of the present research.