Assessment of hazard flooding on the Lena river during the spring high water in region of pipeline underwater crossing

The research presents an application of stochastic approach in modeling the maximum flow level of the river. This approach is used to develop a mathematical model to predict the spring flood hazard based on the statistical data collected for over 50 years. The proposed methodological approach allows to obtain estimation of flow level during the spring flood for a certain period of time, and to construct a hazard process model (trend, harmonic and noise terms) and the autoregressive scheme ARIMA with the adequate accuracy, which can be seen as an example of the plot near Solyanka village area. The research of this area allows to analyses one of the safety aspects of the underwater crossing of Eastern Siberia - Pacific ocean oil pipeline.