Assessing potential threat of HIV-infection spread in Russia by migrants from Asian and African countries

Recently there has been a growth in number of HIV-infected people among migrants in Russia. Migrants from Asian and African countries are especially dangerous in this respect. An initial stage of HIV epidemic is observed in 13 countries out of total 97 in these two macro-regions (without the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). A generalized stage in the process when HIV spreads beyond common risk groups is detected on the Seychelles and in continental African countries south from Sahara, excluding countries located in the Horn of Africa and several Western African countries. All the other countries in the examined macro-regions are somewhere in-between as regards HIV territorial diffusion as a concentrated stage in the epidemic process is observed there and the disease is predominantly spreading within several risk groups; however, it is highly likely to spread beyond them in the nearest future. Hierarchical cluster analysis was accomplished as per four aggregated groups of parameters (the current situation in these countries as regards HIV spreading; inflow of migrants from them into Russia; migrant inflow differentiation as per its chronological and chorologic parameters)...