Assessing the Impact of Regional Maternal (Family) Capital on the Birth Rate

The influence of demographic policy measures on demographic processes is the most important criterion for assessing the most successful practices, including taking into account regional specifics. In this study, we attempted to assess the impact of regional maternal (family) capital on the birth rate. Based on the available research experience, we identified the general and specific conditions for the implementation of this measure, which was developed by regional governments on behalf of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and funded from the regions' own budgets at the end of 2011. In most regions, families have the right to receive regional maternity (family) capital in the event of the birth (adoption) of a third or subsequent child, the amount of payment varies from 50 to 350 thousand rubles. In a number of constituent entities, the spending goals are not defined, but among these the most common are improving housing conditions, paying for education and medical services. At the same time, regional maternal (family) capital in a number of constituent entities (and/or periods of the measure) depends on the criterion of need, i.e. families with average per capita incomes having a fixed ratio to the subsistence minimum (one, one and a half or two) are entitled to it. Based on the previously used methods of identifying the impact of federal maternity capital on the birth rate, we used the total fertility rate with an emphasis on changes in its value during the time periods when this capital was provided in a particular region, as well as fertility rates for real generations. Based on these data, it is possible to judge both an increase in the indicators of the corresponding birth order in real generations, the active reproductive age (according to this birth order) of which fell at the time of the beginning of the provision of regional maternal (family) capital, and the “timing” shifts associated with the earlier birth of children under the influence of this measure. The calculations performed for the regions in which statistics allow this to be done indicate that there are examples of an unambiguously positive effect of regional maternal (family) capital on fertility, however, the revealed presence of timing shifts indicates the need for more subtle adjustments to support programs for large families. Regular measures to maintain the standard of living are important for families with children during the transition to having many children. In this regard, it seems important to continue improving programs to support large families in the regions, including the improvement of social and economic infrastructure