Youth's attitudes toward having children: Possibility of achieving Russia's demographic indicators

The aim of the study is to assess the orientation of modern youth toward the implementation of reproductive plans and to identify the main causes and differences between the desired and actual number of children in terms of the possibility of achieving demographic indicators in accordance with the national development goals of Russia. The research design is based on a classical approach with an analysis of primary and secondary sources of information. When analyzing secondary sources, methods of content analysis, we used an aspect-based and systematic approach to the study of articles, monographs, monitoring and statistical materials. The analysis of the primary information was carried out on an array of data obtained as a result of two surveys conducted on the basis of the Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of FCTAS RAS, which took place in 2017 and 2024 in the south-east of the Moscow Region and the adjacent part of the Central Federal District. The main task of the survey conducted using our comparable methodology was to study the attitude of modern youth to family and marriage issues. Some of the issues determine the consideration of the orientation of the younger generation toward the desired number of children. As a result, we obtained unique territorial (regional) data, which allowed for a predictive assessment (using the linear regression method), according to which the desired number of children in a family in 2031 could be: 11.9% – one child, 60.1% - two, 15.4% – three, 3.2% – four, and 9.4% have more than four. In terms of the total fertility rate, it may be 2.38 by 2031. The logical continuation of the work may consist in improving the tools and expanding the geography of the study. The results obtained can become the basis for the formation of regional and federal projects and programs to increase the birth rate in modern Russian realities