Cyclicity peculiarities in the economic development of the Perm Kray municipalities

The article analyzes the dynamics of key socio-economic indicators characterizing the economic development of municipalities of the Perm Kray, such as the volume of shipped own produced goods, works performed and services rendered by economic activity; annual average number of employees in the organizations; the unemployment rates registered; employees’ gross average nominal monthly wages and salaries in the organizations; fixed investment; the volume of retail turnover index. The aim of the study is to detect and characterize the relationship between the cyclical fluctuations of key economic indicators of the Perm Kray and its municipalities. In the course of the study regression models characterizing the dynamics of the factors under investigation have been constructed for each municipality as well as for of the Perm Kray as whole; the general trend and cyclic component of each time series have been determined; Spearman's rank correlation coefficients have been calculated which define the relationship between the indicators’ cyclic changes in each municipality as well as in the whole region. The author has found that cyclical fluctuations in such indicators as the unemployment rates and the employees’ gross average nominal monthly wages and salaries (more than 70% of municipalities) are sufficiently synchronized, the average level of synchronization (about a third of municipalities) is noted in terms of volume of shipped own produced goods, works performed and services rendered by economic activity and the volume indices of retail trade turnover, cyclical fluctuations in the investment into fixed capital are poorly synchronized (17% of municipalities). The results of the study can be of a practical value for the development of measures of the state regional countercyclical policy to ensure consistency of regulatory measures and to provide necessary conditions for sustainable economic development of the Kama region.