Life expectancy in Russia: modeling and prospects to 2030

This paper examines and models the dynamics of life expectancy in Russia over the past two decades and assesses its prospects through 2030. For the first time, three distinct stages of life expectancy dynamics in Russia over the past 24 years are identified and described in detail. Each stage is characterized by specific behavior and requires a comprehensive approach to analysis. Using modern econometric modeling tools and time series diagnostic methods, we identify patterns in non-stationary input data and establish the need for double differentiation to reduce the life expectancy dynamics series to a stationary form, taking into account structural features. A comparative analysis of various ARIMA models, taking into account the pandemic factor, was conducted, and an optimal model was identified that provides the optimal combination of diagnostic features and predictive accuracy. The resulting models allowed us to generate several scenarios for the process’s development up to 2030. They are particularly valuable for developing government strategies in healthcare, medical financing, and pension system reform. The most realistic life expectancy forecasting model, providing the optimal combination of diagnostic features and predictive accuracy, predicts a life expectancy of 74.36 years, while the most optimistic model predicts a life expectancy of 77.38 years. This study highlights the need to improve forecasting approaches in such an important area as life expectancy, taking into account possible global shocks, and regularly adapting forecasting methods to new realities.