Parameterization of relationships between risk factors and public health under chronic exposure to complex ambient air pollution

The relevance of the present study follows from the necessity to establish parameterized cause-effect relationships that describe additional disease cases among population caused by chronic exposure to chemical factors. In this study, our aim was to explore relationships within the ‘environment - public health’ system to quantify and predict chronic risks under exposure to chemicals in ambient air. To achieve this, we collected statistical data on some municipalities located in the Russian Federation with different structures and levels of chemical pollution in ambient air. Data on population incidence and ambient air quality were coordinated at places where calculation points were located; these points were centers of residential buildings and their coordinates were applied in the study. Mathematical modeling of the relationships was conducted by using multiple linear regressions. Pollution indicators (chemical concentrations in ambient air) that met the requirements of biological plausibility and statistical significance of pair correlations were selected as independent variables. The obtained regression models contain 190 factors for 36 chemicals occurring in emission into ambient air from stationary and mobile sources, which allow calculating the frequency of additional disease cases for 29 diseases. The established factors make it possible to perform operative estimations of a number of diseases associated with ambient air quality at a place of residence relying on medical aid applications. The resulting relationships can be used to predict chronic health risks. Establishing criteria for ranking chemical health risks in zones influenced by hazardous chemical objects can become a next step in development of the suggested approaches.