Construction of trend component of additive long-term forecasting model of electricity consumption volume of the wholesale electric energy and power market of Russia, by the example of united power system of the Ural

In the article, the problem of construction of trend component of additive long-term forecasting model of electricity consumption volume of the Wholesale electric energy and power market of Russia is solved. The initial data for simulation were the values of electricity consumption volumes of the United Energy System of the Urals for the period of 2011-2017, located in the open access at the site of the System Operator of the Unified Energy System of Russia. As the Chow test proved, the time period under consideration can be considered to be a single aggregate. On the basis of analyzing the time-series, the presence of trend component was detected. Approximation error for the trend model in the form of a second-order polynomial was 0.33 %. The values of the Student and Foster-Stewart criteria confirming the effectiveness and adequacy of the constructed model were calculated. Verification of significance of the research results showed that the developed model is reliable for long-term planning of electricity consumption volume of the electric energy and power market of Russia, and its use will allow increasing energy efficiency of production by industrial enterprises when operating in the Wholesale electric energy and power market. Results of the research are recommended to entities of the electric power industry for their operational activities and to researchers engaged in research of the Russian electricity market.