Application of the scenario method in developing a strategy for implementing projects in the suburban passenger complex of railway transport

In the Russian Federation, the task of strengthening national sovereignty has been set at the state level. As part of this task, production capacities are being reorganized, cargo flows are being reoriented, and new transport lines are being built. The implementation of this agenda is impossible without such a production factor as labour. As Russia is a country with large territory, so labour force following the large-scale industrial projects gives rise to new agglomerations and requires the development of suburban passenger traffic. Scientists agree that the modern world is full of uncertainty, and scenario thinking can bring a competitive advantage in the conditions of turbulence. In the article, we have proposed a sequence of steps and tools for developing scenarios of the most probable changes in the ecosystem of suburban passenger traffic and determining a strategic solution that is most resistant to all scenarios.