Problems of prognosis of dangerous behaviour risk in patients with schizophrenia (information and statistical approach)

The results of assessment work of risk of dangerous behaviour in schizophrenic patients during the first year after cancellation of compulsory treatment are presented. As predictive factors, signs including clinical-psychopathological and sociodemographic characteristics of patients, features of their interrelations with others and behaviour were used. Informativeness of each documented sign and prognostic factor of levels of these of these attributes in relation to risk of committing dangerous acts was identified. The criteria that are of great prognostic value in assessing the risk of dangerous activity include: multiplicity of committed dangerous acts; level of education of the patient; family and household situation; alcohol use; employment status; length of the disease and psychopathological syndrome during committing a dangerous act with progression of the disease process, depth of personality changes, curability of the patient; length of the period of disorganized behaviour, misconduct under compulsory treatment; regularity of visits to the district psychiatrist, compliance. According to the authors, their use allows you to get an idea of the extent of the potential public danger of a particular patient, to form effective individual programs of rehabilitation, measures for the integrated prevention of maladjustment states and committing dangerous acts. In future, we can recommend the use of criteria identified in the development of tools to assess the risk of dangerous behaviour of mentally ill persons.