The trans-arctic railway project: a coalition analysis of investor interactions

This study investigates the conditions for construction financing by private contractors of the western wing of the Transpolar route from Salekhard to Norilsk. The purpose of the article is to consider the complex interaction between the customer and expert groups when choosing contractors in conditions of limited investment, using the example of a large-scale railway project (LSRWP) Northern Latitudinal Way (NLW). The methodology is based on converting expert rankings in an ordinal scale into a numerical format, in the form of coefficients of the relative importance (CRI) using ORDEX software. The Shapley method is also considered, which affects the unions of contractors in different coalitions, and ensures the reliable and timely implementation of the LIP-railway. The result of the work is a comparison of a fair compromise according to Granberg and a compromise according to Shapley, which makes it possible to expand the depth and quality of the analysis for cases when compromises do or do not coincide. The tools allow the customer at the pre-investment stage of the evaluation of LSRWP to structure uncertainty and, using decision theory, evaluate the project first in a situation of probabilistic uncertainty, and then in a situation of improbable (radical) uncertainty. Such an integrated approach allows the customer to avoid catastrophic errors at the pre-investment stage of evaluating projects of this class. The usefulness of the result for the customer lies in the ability to make informed decisions when distributing a fixed amount of investment between contractors. This ensures, when united into different technologically feasible coalitions, stability and reliability in implementing the project.