Прогнозирование и выбор эффективных решений по обеспечению экономической безопасности дочерних предприятий ао "Асэ" В условиях неопределённости внешней среды

Forecasting and effective decision-making to ensuring economic security of subsidiaries of jsc ase in conditions of uncertainty in the external environment

The article considers a new approach to ensuring economic security of enterprises of the engineering division of the state corporation Rosatom in the conditions of high uncertainty of the external environment. The relevance of the topic is due to the unprecedented external pressure on the nuclear industry of Russia and the need to improve the methods of managing the sustainable development of enterprises in the new conditions. The article proposes a methodology for forecasting key indicators of economic security using a modified least squares method and scenario analysis, as well as decision-making based on classical principles of optimality (maximax, Hurwitz, Savage, the principle of guaranteed result). Practical testing was carried out on four subsidiaries of JSC Atomstroyexport (JSC NIKIMT-Atomstroy, JSC Energospetsmontazh, LLC VMU, LLC SMU № 1) in terms of EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and ROE (return on equity). Forecasts were obtained for three scenarios (optimistic, realistic, pessimistic), economic security matrices were constructed, and optimal solutions were determined for each scenario based on five different criteria. It was shown that the use of a system of scenarios and a variety of optimality principles allows ranking companies by their level of sustainability in different conditions, which increases the validity of management decisions.