Forecasting the supply of milling and groats enterprises of the Krasnoyarsk region raw materials of the major cereal crops

To justify the rational location of new production enterprises of grain processing industry in Krasnoyarsk region a multivariate statistical model has been developed, which allows to calculate the forecast values of quantitative and qualitative indicators of grain in different natural and climatic zones of the region. At carrying out of numerical experiment it is proved that the investigated indicators have different quantitative-qualitative values on zones of Krasnoyarsk territory and at replacement of values different results on provision of grain-processing enterprises with grain raw materials, taking into account their specialization are received. The complex assessment of grain raw materials for grain processing industries, with the help of the developed multivariate statistical model allows to predict the rational placement of production enterprises in the region for the production of new types of flour, groats and other grain products, taking into account the quality indicators of available raw materials and production base. The calculations of the multivariate statistical model are based on the use of the method of pairwise comparisons and ranking of the degree of correspondence of the quantity and quality of grain produced in different zones of Krasnoyarsk region to the characteristics of grain processing enterprises of these zones: productivity and capacity utilization factor. The use of the method of pairwise comparisons proves the expediency of grouping quantitative and qualitative indicators by zones, since the specialization of the main grain-processing enterprises in the Krasnoyarsk region. values of quantitative and qualitative indicators of grain of different climatic zones of the Krasnoyarsk territory to justify the rational placement of new production enterprises of the grain processing industry. During the numerical experiment, it is proved that the studied indicators have different values and when replacing these values, different results are obtained on the provision of grain processing enterprises with grain raw materials and their specialization. Comprehensive assessment of quantitative and qualitative indicators of grain raw materials for grain processing industries, allows you to predict the rational placement in the region of production enterprises for the production of new types of flour and cereals, taking into account the quality of existing raw materials and production base with the developed multidimensional statistical model. The calculations of the multidimensional statistical model are based on the ranking of the degree of compliance of the quantity and quality of grain produced in different regions of the Krasnoyarsk territory, productivity and utilization of production capacities of grain processing enterprises using the method of paired comparisons. The use of the method of pair comparisons proves: the expediency of grouping by zones, since the specialization of the main plants of the zone differ more than within. The model makes it possible to estimate in statics and dynamics the availability of grain processing enterprises with grain raw materials, the utilization rate of production capacities within each zone. This approach with the ranking of the above features, taking into account the assessment of compliance between them, allowed to predict the rational placement in the region of production enterprises of the grain processing industry, taking into account the assessment of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of raw materials.