Forecasting of capital investments into the fixed capital in regions until 2024: methods and results of territorial forecast for Russia

The aim of the study is to improve the methodology of forecasting of the territorial proportions of fixed capital investments within the medium-term forecast of the social and economic development of Russia. The author proposes a method ofdecomposition of predicted national indicators at the regional level which takes into account theprospects of attracting private investments and implementing large investment projects with the state participation. The researcher describes the system of factors determiningthe interregional differences ofprivate investors’ activityandforming themetric basisof complexestimation of the regional investment attractiveness using the official statistics. The paper presents the list and methods for estimating the indicatorscharacterizing theproduction, financial, consumer, institutional, innovative, infrastructureand natural-resourcecomponents ofthe region’s investment potential, as well associal, environmental and technological regional investment risks. The paper shows the opportunities of using the functional relationship for the medium-term forecasting between the integral regional indicators of the investment attractiveness and activity. The national forecast has been decomposed by calculating the individual regional deviationsofthe forecasted national growth rate offixed investment in Russia for 2019-2024. Thedeveloped variants ofperspective territorial proportions confirm the possibility to achieve the national target of the forecast presented as a 25 percent share of the fixed investment in GDP of Russia and reflect the core perspective destinations ofdevelopment for different parts of the country - the accelerated development of the Far East, the Arctic zone, the largest metropolitan areas of Russia, as well as the provision of national security in the geostrategic regions of the North Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts. The approach is designed to support the administrative decisions concerning the spatial development by linking regional and investment policy priorities.