Prediction of economic systems’ sustainable development by use of OLAP-model

Relevant information and analytical methods based on optimization of forecast targets are required to predict future development of economic systems. Projected parameters should be close to reality. The purpose of this paper is to analyze methods instrumental in predicting stability of economic systems based on the forecast parameters. The main instrument of the majority of methods used to predict design characteristics of the information flow in the process of designing OLAP-models is an extrapolation scheme, which includes the study of time series consisting of the time-ordered set of these characteristics. The structure prediction algorithm provides: prediction of changes in the external and internal environment on the basis of quantitative and heuristic information on the observed parameters of the environment; assessment of the enterprise reaction on the influence of internal or external factors; scenario analysis of the enterprise development; analysis of the enterprise performance with the use of OLAP-model; prediction and correction of parameters and planned decisions. A method of forecasting parameters for economic systems is offered. The method is based on OLAP-models and includes the study of time series consisting of time-ordered sequences of these parameters. Assessment of the quality forecasts of the company’s economic condition is carried out by means of an objective function. The developed method for estimation of calculated economic indicators makes it possible to receive an error within a confidence interval using a number of measurements, which come in the time interval T. It is shown that the economic forecast parameters of the enterprise must be complied according to the time the analysis.