Forecasting the Probable Resistance from Offenders during their Detention

Introduction. The article discusses some models for forecasting and figuring out probable behavior of offenders during their detention: resistance and retaliatory actions on the part of offenders; stages of conflict development in a confrontation situation; and the behavior of offenders at each stage on the example of the police patrol service. Materials and Methods. A theoretical analysis of scientific and methodical literature, studying of police documentation and legal acts, observation, expert assessment, modeling, mathematical statistical methods were used. Results and Discussion. The factors of the offender’s resistance are determined and five stages of the development of a conflict situation, which turns into a confrontation between the police squad and the detained offender, are identified. The technology for calculating the probable forecasting of the offenders’ behavior is proposed and three degrees of possible resistance during their detention are identified. Conclusions. The main factors determining the degree of resistance during the detention of offenders are as follows: alcohol intoxication; aggressive behavior; the detainees’ criminal record. The following indicators to forecast and determine the degree of the offenders’ probable resistance during their detention were revealed: the number of offenders; the state of alcoholic or narcotic intoxication; aggressive behavior; the criminal record; the presence of weapon; the severity of the offense; the scene of the incident. The stages of the development of the conflict situation in the confrontation with the offender are determined and an evaluation table-memo is compiled to calculate the probability of resistance.