Methodology for determining the spatial potential of agglomeration effects: the case of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration

Modern methodological approaches and techniques for studying agglomeration effects are aimed at determining and evaluating the spatial potentials of development and interaction of territories of various hierarchical levels. But the possibilities of modern software that allows detecting intra-agglomeration spatial reserves - spatial potentials - on cartographic models are not taken into account. The work uses spatial-functional and synergetic (agglomeration) approaches, as well as potential method, statistical method and cartographic modeling. We reveal the theoretical basis for the formation of spatial potentials in the intra-agglomeration environment and propose a methodological approach to their determination based on agglomeration effects of demographic, settlement and economic structures of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration. According to the calculations obtained, we design cartographic models that correspond to the structures under consideration and reflect spatial potentials of agglomeration effects, which are represented by groups of five clusters. The levels of clusters of spatial potentials and their configurations are obtained with the help of the neural network software “Surfer Golden Software”. We find that groups of clusters within the demographic and settlement potentials structure - gravitational, high-potential, medium-potential and low-potential - have smaller territorial impact areas in contrast to similar groups of clusters of economic structure. At the same time, a very low-potential cluster of demographic and settlement structure significantly exceeds the area of the similar cluster of economic structure and spreads beyond the cities located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration periphery. The areas for future research are related to the development of new methodological approaches and techniques aimed at searching for and modeling agglomeration effects and their spatial potentials in the functional structures of individual cities, urban agglomerations or regions (investment, innovation, environmental, transport, service, cultural and other structures). Another promising area consists in determining spatial potentials based on the agglomeration effects of individual large enterprises with the help of quantitative indicators reflecting their performance effectiveness; this direction is difficult to implement due to the lack of open statistical data.