Developing an integral indicator of scientific journals development

Currently, the issue of determining the rating and scientific significance of journals remains very important. It provides a review of the methods for assessing the quality of Russian and foreign journals. Purpose of work. The aim of the study is to develop mathematical models allowing to simulate and predict the dynamics of an integral indicator of the scientific development of a journal. Materials and methods. The paper defines the set of scientometric indicators for assessing the scientific significance of journals. The independence of factors was investigated using a matrix of matching correlation coefficients. A method for obtaining a mathematical dependence that reflects the relationship between the selected scientometric indicators and the integral indicator, based on the application of the multidimensional average method, is proposed. The ranking of factors is performed by the expert method. The weight coefficients were calculated using the Fishburne method. As the source data, we used available information from the scholarly e-library. The results of the study. Using the formula obtained, the values of the integral indicator for 7 years have been calculated from the source data using the example of the Journal 1. Using a similar technique, we derived the dependence of the integral indicator on key indicators of the Journal 2, for which the Science Index indicator has not been defined. The forecast of bibliometric indicators (factors) and the integral index of the journal for the next three years is made. To predict the nature of the change in factors (number of citations), anquadratic and cubic dependence is selected. The influence of joint change of factors on the integral indicator is investigated. Discussion and conclusions. The developed mathematical models can be used to analyze changes in the complex of scientometric indicators over time when designing a development strategy for scientific journals and making managerial decisions.