Development of methodological tools for forecasting market prices for gas condensate when forming the sales policy of oil and gas producing companies

The growing demand for gas condensate both within the country and abroad confirms the importance of the study subject. Development of oil and gas production infrastructure facilities and increase in gas condensate production volumes are largely driven by the changes in market prices, which determines the efficiency of the sales policy and production activities of oil and gas producing companies. Alongside with that, many factors influence market prices for gas condensate, and there are difficulties in forecasting their dynamics in the market of all energy resources. The study is aimed at the development of a methodological approach to increasing the reliability of forecasting market prices for gas condensate in the context of seasonal demand and uncertainty factors. We have proposed to use experimental design techniques to simulate the market price of gas condensate, and presented a simulation model that takes into account seasonal fluctuations in prices in the market, as well as the influence of other factors. An analysis of the dynamics of gas condensate price made it possible to identify patterns of its deviations under the influence of changes in oil prices, climatic factors and other market levers of influence. The presented distribution of the frequency of changes in market prices for gas condensate under the influence of uncertainty factors allowed us to draw a conclusion about the probabilities of price fluctuations during the year. As additional recommendations, we consider the refinement of the proposed model by using artificial intelligence to model uncertainty factors in the energy market.