Development of the theory of real options as a tool for adaptive management of investment project efficiency

The article is devoted to the issues of correct assessment and management of optional investment projects in real assets. The research methodology is based on the principles of rational multicriterial decision-making in conditions of uncertainty, which determines not only risks, but also opportunities to improve the efficiency of projects, through the a priori introduction of options into the projects, allowing the use of probable opportunities. The study analyzes various approaches and methods of assessing the efficiency of investment projects and the value of real options. It shows that there is no possibility in principle to directly use the methodology of financial options valuation for the valuation of real options. The binary decision tree approach and ROV-method (real option valuation - method) are used as the basis for the development of the author's method of real option valuation. Despite a rather high flexibility and adaptability of this method, the key task of its practical use is to estimate the probabilities of optimistic and pessimistic trajectories of binary option branching, which, due to the fundamental novelty of most investment projects and the lack of reliable retrospective information, is realizable only with the involvement of relevant and verifiable expert methods. The authors consider the proposed method as a modified real option valuation method (MROV - modified real option valuation - method). The practical significance of the obtained results lies in improving the correctness of real option valuations and option projects and making effective option management decisions in real investment projects.