Risks and threats in Russian regional strategies

The article presents the results of the Russian experience of the inclusion of risks and threats in regional strategies of social and economic development. The official documents of 85 strategies were analyzed, the quality of risks and risk assessment was expertly assessed at a five-point scale. A ranked number of strategies was made taking into account an additional parameter, i.e. the number of references to the word “risk”. A list of the best strategies was made. They are the strategies of Sakhalin, Kurgan, Novosibirsk, Ivanovo regions, Zabaykalsky krai, and Republic of Crimea. The author notes that in most strategies of the Russian regions, attention is paid to risks and threats, but only in a third of strategies they are analyzed relatively well, and measures to deal with risks have been developed in no more than 10% of strategies. An abnormallylarge number of references to the word “risk” were identified when theyare described in relation to all projects (Arkhangelsk region) or events (Zabaykalsky krai). The methodological problems associated with the analysis of risks and threats were systematized. They are a mixture of the concepts of problem, weakness, threat, risk, negative factor; lack of assessments of the likelihood and strength of the impact of risks; lack of description of measures to reduce the consequences of risks. The absence of a correlation between the quality of work with risks and threats and the regional resilience index characterizing the region’s resistance to economic and financial crises was found. The author notes that the regions that are aware of their vulnerability work better than other ones which mentioned threats and risks in their strategies, but this circumstance has little effect on their shock resistance against economic crises. The recommendations concerning the improvement of strategic planning are suggested. They are a thorough analysis of threats and weaknesses at the stage of a SWOT analysis, identification of a separate section on strategic risks, and development of an appropriate set of adaptive scenarios, creation of a regional risk management system.