Saving of the Russian population is questionable

On the basis of Rosstat data the article analyses dynamics of the natural increase of the Russian population from 2013 to 2018. It shows that natural population growth was observed only three years (2013-2015) as a result of not only two socio-demographic programmes implemented by the RF Government, but also of Crimea’s accession to Russia. In two years that followed (2016-2017) the population size was gradually growing, but natural population growth was replaced by population decline. Since the beginning of 2018 the demographic situation has deteriorated even more, that was, among other things, the result of the economic policy of the RF Government in recent years, which makes the task of “population saving” infeasible. Decline in population real income and the planned increase in the retirement age against the background of decreasing number of women in reproductive age will not lead to an increase in the birth rate. Detailed analysis of three variants of the Rosstat demographic projection till 2050 shows that the development is likely to go by unfavourable and partly medium version of the forecast with a significant depopulation and a certain decline in the population size till 2030. Then the situation in fertility and mortality will be gradually improving, and by the year 2050 the population size in the Russian Federation will slightly exceed the present level. This rather optimistic forecast will require accelerated socio-economic development of the country already in the coming years, otherwise the time to improve the situation in depopulation will be missed. In this regard, the article proposes measures that will change the situation.