Scenario modeling of tourism services consumption in Russia

Given the unstable geopolitical situation associated with the impact of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries, it is extremely important for Russia to ensure its own steady development pace. Saturating the domestic market with Russian-made high-quality goods and services, and promoting consumption that has declined because people significantly reduced spending due to rising prices, are becoming relevant goals. The task of stimulating domestic consumer demand determines the framework of development of the Russian economy in the near future. To address the issue, Russia possesses a great potential for the formation of new growth points. One of them is tourism, whose high multiplicative effect allows us to consider it as an economic driver. The main priorities for the development of the Russian tourism industry by 2030 are reflected in the national project “Tourism and the hospitality industry”. In the context of economic uncertainty, there is an increasing need to improve the quality of management decisions in the tourism sector. In this regard, the purpose of the work is to develop forecasting tools for scenario modeling and assessment of economic effects obtained due to changes in the volume of domestic tourist consumption. Scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of input-output modeling methodology to determine the economic effects provided by the growth of demand for domestic tourism services. The results of the study have shown that active development of tourism under the optimistic scenario will provide an almost twofold increase in the volume of gross output annually in comparison with the existing rates of tourist services consumption. We use general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, and tools based on input-output methodology. The information base includes the works of domestic and foreign scientists involved in stimulating domestic tourist consumption, scenario modeling and forecasting of the economy, as well as information from state statistics bodies and World Bank data.