Scenario forecasting of the Saratov oblast rural population

Unfavorable trends in the demographic development of rural areas in the Saratov Oblast, including aging of the age structure in the village, decline in the birth rate, and reduction in the number of women of fertile age actualize the assessment of promising changes in population reproduction based on scenario forecasts. The purpose of the research is to develop a forecast and alternative scenarios for demographic development of the Saratov Oblast rural areas in the medium term. The authors have considered the approaches to demographic forecasting, presented in the scientific literature. The study is based on the use of a well-known cohort-component forecasting method and a scenario approach implemented in the Mathcad 14.0 program. The information base is formed on data presented in the official Rosstat publications; the article describes scenario conditions and forecasting methods. The development of the forecast of the number and structure of population is preceded by an analysis of the patterns and trends of demographic development of the Saratov Oblast rural territories. The forecast calculations are performed for men and women separately (2025-2050). The results of the work are the construction of alternative scenarios and development of a medium-term forecast of the number and structure of the Saratov Oblast rural population including inertial, extrapolation, moderately optimistic scenarios both under the condition of zero migration and taking into account the results of rural-urban migration. The authors compare the scenarios, and identify the demographic threats and restrictions on the development of the Saratov Oblast rural areas. The forecast results show that rural population in the Saratov Oblast will decrease from 591 (2020) to 433-459 thousand people (2050) with zero migration and 420-445 thousand people (2050) taking into account the results of rural-urban migration. The forecasting results can be used in working out a strategy for the sustainable development of the Saratov Oblast rural areas, as well as implementation of demographic and family policy measures.