Scenario assessments of climatic warming and population mortality in Russian cities located in the sub-arctic regions in XXI century

Climatic changes are the most apparent in the Arctic. Climatic forecasts indicate that warming is continuing on circumpolar territories. There is a vital task to determine attributive fraction of mortality caused by exposure to non-optimal temperatures within the given scenarios. We obtained a dependence of daily mortality on average daily temperatures within a non-linear model with a distributed lag. Daily temperature anomalies that were expected to occur by the middle and the end of the XXI century were calculated as per ensemble calculations of a regional climatic model by Voyekov’s Chief Geophysical Observatory; the calculations were made with applying representative trajectories for greenhouse gases concentrations built by the Intergovernmental Expert group on Climatic Change: RCP4.5 that led to moderate warming, and RCP8.5 that led to the maximum warming. Warming in Russian cities located in the sub-Arctic regions would be accompanied with a general decrease in temperature-dependent mortality...