Sclerocrangon shrimps of the Barents Sea and adjacent waters in the context of climate change

This study examines the impact of climate change on the distribution of two species of Arctic shrimp of the genus Sclerocrangon (S. boreas and S. ferox) in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters (the Kara Sea, the Norwegian Sea). Using ensemble modeling of species distribution (SDM), we assessed the ecological preferences of both species and their responses to three climate scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) by 2100. The results revealed significant differences in habitat stability: S. boreas, adapted to shallow water zones with moderate salinity, retains up to 77 % of its original range even under extreme warming (SSP5-8.5), while the cold-water S. ferox loses 64% of its habitat due to a narrow temperature optimum (-1-0°C) and dependence on high salinity. It is established that increased Atlanticization (intrusion of Atlantic waters) and a reduction in ice cover lead to a shift of habitats to the eastern and northeastern regions of the sea.