Socio-pedagogical Forecasting as a Method of Analyzing the Eff ectiveness of Educational Work in the University

The theoretical foundations and methodological approaches (systemic, synergetic, competence-based, personality-oriented and environmental) to the socio-pedagogical forecasting of the eff ectiveness of educational work are presented. The main forecasting methods are described: extrapolation, expert assessments, modeling, scenario method, foresight technology and Delphi method. A comprehensive system of criteria for evaluating the eff ectiveness of educational work is proposed, covering quantitative, qualitative, procedural and performance indicators. A model of socio-pedagogical forecasting has been developed, including predictive orientation, data collection, building a basic model, search and regulatory forecasts, verifi cation, correction and making recommendations. The possibilities of practical application of forecasting results in the context of strategic planning, development of educational work programs, optimization of resource provision and improvement of the monitoring system are shown. The limitations and prospects of improving socio-pedagogical forecasting related to the integration of artifi cial intelligence technologies into this process and the development of interdisciplinary research are identified.