Socio-economic indicators of Russia’s national development goals: trends and forecast

Socio-economic indicators of Russia’s national development goals: trends and forecast

Автор: Shabunova A.A., Kroshilin S.V., Yarasheva A.V., Medvedeva E.I.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Public administration

Статья в выпуске: 5 т.17, 2024 года.

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The article presents the findings of a research on the achievability of a number of socio-economic indicators that are stated in the national development goals of Russia for the period up to 2030. The aim of the work is to analyze the possibility of achieving the indicators reflected in Russia’s national development goals by individual federal districts based on forecasting and creating an appropriate rating. The study includes three stages: first, to analyze available statistical data and select indicators for analysis; second, to build three forecast scenarios (pessimistic, neutral, optimistic); third, to visualize the results obtained and design a rating of federal districts according to the achievability of the declared parameters of development goals. Information base includes Rosstat data (statistical collections “Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators” for 2020-2023), as well as monitoring indicators of the minimum wage for the period from 2013 to 2024. We arrange federal districts in three groups: with a high level of achievability of indicators of national development goals (Central Federal District, North Caucasus Federal District), with a medium level (Northwestern Federal District, Southern Federal District, Ural Federal District, Volga Federal District) and with a low level (Siberian Federal District, Far Eastern Federal District). According to the forecast and the generalized rating, by 2030 none of the federal districts will be able to fully achieve the required level of the indicators under consideration. The uniqueness and novelty of the results we have obtained are due to the possibility of comparing the achievability of indicators in different time intervals and the declared values of Russia’s national development goals. The proposed rating can be vertically and horizontally scaled by expanding the number of analyzed indicators. The technique we propose and the results we have obtained can be used by representatives of all levels of legislative and executive authorities when assessing the declared socio-economic parameters of national development goals, including the implementation of other national projects, as well as by a wide range of scientists and researchers engaged in forecasting and modeling at the macro, meso and micro levels.

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Rf national development goals, quality of life, socio-economic indicators, rating of regions, forecasting, econometric modeling

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147245887

IDR: 147245887   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.5.95.2

Список литературы Socio-economic indicators of Russia’s national development goals: trends and forecast

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