Modern development of the system of cities in Russia: static and dynamic approaches

The article raises the issues of urban transformation. The provisions of the new economic geography state that large cities get agglomeration effects from overcrowding, businesses and amenities. But practice shows that medium and small cities often have more prospects for development. Borrowed size (the location of a small or medium-sized city or settlement near a larger one) allows residents to use some of the services of neighboring cities without incurring the associated costs. The possibility of borrowing agglomeration advantages is forming a new system of cities. The distribution of population and economic activity does not always occur around administrative centers, there is a polycentricity of spatial development. To analyze the system of cities we proposed to use static and dynamic approaches that allow us to determine more fully the reasons for the attractiveness of cities and population growth. We constructed a system of econometric models of the influence of high order urban functions - factors of economy, education, culture and sports - on the number of residents of cities in the Central Federal District of Russia as a whole and by size categories. The analysis of polycentricity of cities revealed that a high level of the indicator is observed in the Moscow, Vladimir, Belgorod, Tula, Tver and Kaluga oblasts, and low polycentricity is in the Lipetsk, Ryazan, Voronezh and Orel oblasts. It was determined that the attractiveness of cities and the growth of their population are influenced by high-order urban functions (business, science, sports and culture), the ability to take advantage of “borrowed” size, the external effects of the urban network and the level of inter-city cooperation. The most significant factor in the growth of the city is the number of schools. The second factor is the possibility for children and adolescents to join sports clubs. Budget expenditures have a positive impact on the growth of large, big and small cities. Cultural and recreational activities are significant for the attractiveness of cities with a population of up to 10 thousand people and from 15 to 20 thousand people. It was revealed that more than a half of settlements in the Central Federal District are cities and urban-type settlements with population less than 10 thousand people. For this group, all the considered development factors are statistically significant and important. The results can be used to further develop the ideas of static and dynamic analysis to assess the reasons for the attractiveness of cities, substantiate the “borrowed size factor”, and determine general trends in the system of cities formation. The practical value of the work lies in a better understanding of the principles for creating an attractive city for residents at different stages and conditions of its development; it can be used in the development of appropriate socio-economic programs at the city and regional levels.