Strategic management of tourism in the region: risk factors (on the example of the Yaroslavl region)

The article considers the questions of the important problem of strategic management of tourism in the region - the factors of risk and their assessment. The Yaroslavl region pursues a very active policy concerning the priority branches of social-economic development and it was considered an object of this research. Tourism is one of the most important branches because it develops dynamically. Average annual increase of tourists in the Yaroslavl Region comes to 15,1%, whereas in the Strategy of socio-economical development of Yaroslavl region the planned value was 10,7%. Due to this, detection of the risk factors and their possible influence assessment is a topical problem, especially in the sphere of tourism. The article considers risk factors that are to be taken into account during the realization of strategic solutions in the sphere of tourism development. Furthermore, there are expert methods proposed to define the impact of various risk factors on the realization of the strategy. The article also comprises the quantitative assessment of this impact with due regard for realization of various scenarios of development of tourism in this region that were proposed in the project of Strategy of tourism development of Yaroslavl region till 2025. As the quantitative parameter the supposed tourist turnover was used which was calculated in three variants basing on the amount of tourist expenses. The authors tried therefore to reveal the risk factors and define their impact on possible results of strategic management of tourism development in the region.