Structural Determinants of Migration Flows in Benin and Niger: Climate, Demography, and Institutional Transformation

The article examines the demographic, climatic, and institutional factors shaping the migration flows in Benin and Niger between 1990 and 2024. The author introduces the concept of dual structural pressure on Benin as a country simultaneously losing labour migrants, and receiving the forced migrants from the north. Niger, burdened by a demographic explosion (TFR of approximately 6.4) and climate degradation, retains powerful emigration incentives. In addition, the article demonstrates that the structural inertia of migration cannot be overcome through regulatory measures without simultaneously addressing the food security, youth employment, and climate adaptation.