Foresight research technology of the commodity market: a case study on trends in the Russian bicycle market

Foresight research into commodity markets is being changed by the restructuring of the Russian economy given global changes in the world order and requires further development. This article presents foresight research of the commodity market using ISM methodology, SWOT analysis, and the scenario method. As a case study, the product market of bicycles is considered as a typical market for consumer durables. Current trends in the commodity market with sanctions against Russia have been established. The basic provisions of the foresight study were successfully supplemented with a scenario prototype of market trends and the results of management techniques, which made it possible to form a problem field for the bicycle market in Russia, considering supply and demand, and to develop pessimistic, optimistic, and basic scenarios for its development. The results of the study are relevant for entrepreneurs when making decisions on the development of new types of business, for local governments to develop urban infrastructure to maintain a healthy lifestyle culture.