Russian economy: development trends and forecast for 2015-2017

The article presents an overview of key factors of economic slowdown in Russia and distinguishes three aggregate groups of these factors, including domestic, external economical and external geopolitical ones. Substantial money supply shift against a background of transition to the floating exchange rate is considered to be the cause of "Black Tuesday" on December 17, 2014. A combination of high capacity utilization level, labor shortage, high level of the key interest rate, international sanctions limit economic growth as a result of ruble devaluation and import substitution policy. In this case, we suggest establishing a criterion for setting priorities among the industries to support depending on the value of their multiplier effect and import dependency level. The prior industries list, made on the basis of this criterion, includes machine-tool construction, chemical industry, military-industrial complex, etc. We introduce a medium-term forecast for socio-economic development of Russia in 2015-2017. In this forecast we analyze not only the consequences of the conservative anti-crisis plan introduced by the government, but also outcomes of a more active budget and monetary policy measures. The model calculations show that active government support is likely to prevent dramatic fall in GDP and investment level and to maintain employment. Currency regulation measures and limitation of natural monopolies' tariffs are considered to be instruments for leveling the negative consequences in the form of ruble devaluation and prices growth.