The Choice of Tourist Destinations by Residents of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation: General Trends and Specifics (2004–2021)

The importance of maintaining and restoring physical and emotional strength, reproduction of human capital in severity of natural and climatic characteristics of life activity actualizes the problem of organizing tourism and recreation for the local population of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation. What tourist destinations do residents of the Arctic zone of Russia choose? How have the preferences of the local population in the field of organized tourism changed under the influence of the challenges of our time? Are there any differences in the choice of tourist destinations in comparison with the average resident of the Russian Federation? This article is devoted to the search for answers to these questions, the purpose of which is to identify the general

^∗ © Kondrateva S.V., 2023

patterns and specifics of the development of organized outbound tourism in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation under the influence of the challenges of our time based on official statistical data for the period 2004–2021.

Theoretical aspects of the problem

In the works devoted to the study of the Russian Arctic, attention is focused on the special economic and harsh climatic characteristics of the territory, including both uncomfortable natural conditions of work and residence, and unfavorable environmental situation, which together have a negative impact on the lifestyle and quality of life of the population [1, Moroshkina M.V., Potasheva O.V.]. In addition, the problem of youth outflow from the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation under the influence of both objective and subjective factors intensifies the need to preserve and reproduce human capital [2, Simakova A.V.]. According to the study of Sorokina N.S. (Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation), “despite the positive dynamics of economic development, the coastal regions of the Arctic have not yet been able to provide a decent standard of living of the population and stimulate the development of social infrastructure at the level of the regions of the central part of the Russian Federation” [3].

In this regard, the issue of tourism and recreation opportunities for residents of the Arctic regions seems to be one of the most significant areas of scientific research. In addition to the above conditions and demands, the need and importance of the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is growing. Thus, a team of scientists from the Institute of Market Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences offers three most promising concepts for developing the potential of the Russian Arctic, which can be the basis for the dynamically sustainable and environmentally safe development of the region, one of which is the transport and tourism concept [4, Tsvetkov V.A., Dudin M.N., Yurieva A.A.].

It should be noted that the corpus of works on assessing the potential, analyzing the possibilities and limitations of the development of the tourist and recreational sphere of activity in the Arctic, on the development of Arctic tourism is constantly expanding. Thus, the application of a balanced author’s approach to assessing the tourist potential of the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation allowed a team of scientists from the Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov to identify the main problems and determine the directions for increasing the tourism potential of the Arctic territories [5, Myakshin V.N., Shaparov A.E., Tikhanova D.V.]. In the works of researchers of the Karelian Research Center of the RAS, it is emphasized that “when planning the development of tourism in the northern and Arctic regions of the European North, it is necessary to take into account the greatest vulnerability of their natural ecosystems” [6, Moroshkina M.V., Vasilyeva A.V., Kondratyeva S.V.]. Meanwhile, Sevastyanov D.V. (Saint Petersburg State University) emphasizes that “most of the tourist attractions in the Arctic are difficult to access” due to their location “mainly in specially protected natural areas”, therefore “the

NORTHERN AND ARCTIC SOCIETIES

Svetlana V. Kondrateva. The Choice of Tourist Destinations … accessibility of tourism facilities will increase with the strengthening and development of transport communications and ports on the Northern Sea Route, as well as the formation of the infrastructure of settlements, seaports and airports in the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation” [7, Sevastyanov D.V.].

Summarizing the available theoretical and practical developments on the issue under study, one should state a sufficient share of works that reveal the potential and opportunities for the development of the tourism business, the strategic directions of its development, the assessment of various factors that have both a stimulating and a deterrent effect on the functioning of the tourist and recreational spheres of activity [8, Lukin Yu.F.; 9, Sevastyanov D.V.; 10, Bayaskalova T.A., Kuklina M.V., Bogdanov V.N.; 11, Timoshenko D.S.; 12, Timoshenko D.S.]. Works that reveal the problems of the development of cruise tourism deserve special attention [13, Kunnikov A.V.; 14, Zhilenko V.Yu.], which, according to Rosstat, is “the most popular type of tourism in the Arctic” [15, Menshikova T.N.]. Based on the assessment of economic, socio-economic and infrastructural factors, researchers have identified general trends in the development of tourism and recreation in the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation [16, Moroshkina M.V., Kondratyeva S.V.], which made it possible to conclude that, on the one hand, residents of the Arctic regions “are characterized by high opportunities in organizing tourist trips and spending leisure time, which is determined by financial indicators, the duration of vacations”, on the other hand, “extremely low average indexes of priority spending on recreation [...] on the territory of permanent residence”.

A significant share of works is devoted to the dynamics and structure of tourist flows in the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. However, most of the studies reveal the problems of inbound tourism in the regional context [17, Tereshchenko E.Yu.; 18, Kolesnikov R.A., Loktev R.I.; 19, Sevastyanov D.V.], the analysis of mutual tourist flows can be separated from the works devoted to the study of Russian regions as a whole [20, Moroshkina M.V., Kondratieva S.V.; 21, Kondratieva S.V.]. Although numerous works of researchers are devoted to the study of outbound tourism of Russians [22, Leonidova E.G.; 23, Rubtsova N.V., Solodukhin K.S.; 24, Akhremchik D.V.], the analysis of the outbound tourist flow of the Arctic regions is fragmentary and isolated.

The works revealing the problem of the impact of modern challenges on the development of tourism and recreation in the focus of opportunities for the population of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are significant [25, Konyshev E.V., Lutoshkina A.K.]. Based on the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought serious changes in the geography of tourist flows and consumer behavior, Konyshev E.V. and Lutoshkin A.K. predict two scenarios for the development of tourism in the Russian Arctic in the short and long term. Thus, “the first scenario is possible with the complete removal of restrictions on international tourist trips, which will lead to a decrease in interest in recreation in the Arctic regions of Russia and a return to pre-pandemic indicators”, the second one, “while maintaining restrictions on international travel [...] will con- tribute to further growth of interest in nature-oriented types of tourism and travel”, becoming a catalyst for the development of tourism infrastructure [25, Konyshev E.V., Lutoshkina A.K.].

Thus, the main focus of researchers’ attention is directed to the development of the tourist and recreational activities in the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF); the possibilities of spending leisure time and recreation of the local population in places of permanent residence are less often considered. These scientific areas are significant and relevant from the socio-economic, biomedical, geopolitical and other positions. At the same time, taking into account the severity of the natural and climatic conditions of life (for example, a collective work on the health safety of tourists [26, Chistova V.V., Logunova E.V., Pashinskaya K.O., Ryzhikova E.M. , Romanova E.D., Vasiliev A.G., Udalov A.N.]) and the need to restore human capital, it is interesting to study the choice of tourist destinations by the inhabitants of the Arctic regions, taking into account their high economic opportunities for organizing tourism. The concept of a tourist destination is understood as “a managed tourist system with a tourist resource potential that is competitive and steadily attracts tourist flows” [27, Gorbunov A.P., Kolyadin A.P., Burnyasheva L.A.].

Currently available developments are characterized by significant spatial, temporal and content gaps that do not allow forming ideas about the development, scale, general trends and specifics of outbound organized tourism for residents of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The present study is aimed at filling in the existing scientific gap.

Research methodology

The aim of the work is to identify the general patterns and specifics of the development of organized outbound tourism in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation under the influence of the challenges of modernity for the period 2004–2021 on the basis of official statistics. The article proposes a comprehensive approach to the study of outbound organized tourism of the population of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, based on an extensive statistical database of quantitative and qualitative indicators for the study period in the focus of international and domestic tourist flows in the regional context.

The model platform for the study is nine Russian Arctic regions, four of which are completely (Murmansk Oblast, Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous okrugs) and five — partially (Republics of Karelia and Sakha and Komi republic, Arkhangelsk Oblast without counting NAO, Krasnoyarsk Krai) belong to the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

The work is based on official statistical data available in the context of the studied nine Arctic regions of the Russian Federation. The study analyzed a vast array of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the development of outbound organized tourism in the AZRF regions in the context of tours abroad and in Russia. The study made it possible to assess the dynamics, general trends and specifics of the development of the outbound organized tourist flow of the local population of the studied subjects in comparison with the average Russian indicators and in the regional context in the focus of domestic and international tourism.

The paper considers only the organized outbound tourist flow, which is understood as the number of Russian citizens sent by Russian companies on tours abroad or within Russia. Independent (unorganized) tourism is not considered in this work.

To achieve this goal, the following indicators were analyzed in the work:

• •    structure of organized outbound tourism for the period 2004–2021, %

• •    dynamics of organized outbound international tourism for the period 2004–2021, people;

• •    structure of organized outbound international tourism for the period 2004–2021, %;

• •    dynamics of organized domestic tourism for the period 2004–2021, people;

• •    structure of organized domestic tourism for the period 2004–2021, %;

• •    intensity of outbound international tourism in 2019 and 2021, people/1 thousand people;

• •    intensity of domestic tourism in 2019 and 2021, people/1 thousand people.

The selected indicators are analyzed for Russia as a whole, cumulatively for the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, as well as in the context of the nine Arctic subjects under study.

The calculation of the index of the intensity of outbound organized tourism allows us to compile the objective mobility of the population of the studied subjects of the Russian Federation. The tourist preferences of the local population formed in the pre-pandemic period are reflected in the indicators for 2019, the calculation of data for 2021 demonstrates the overcoming of modern challenges in the focus of the tourist interests of residents of the Arctic regions. The calculation of the intensity of tourist flows is based on the volume of outbound organized tourism to the population of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation in the context of international and domestic tourism (persons/1 thousand people).

The geography of tourist preferences of residents of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in 2019 and 2021 is considered in the country context. However, statistical data do not allow us to analyze the directions of domestic tourism; this study will consider the Russian destination as a whole.

The analysis is based on public data of state statistics. The time period of the study is limited by the representation of statistical data in open access. The median indicators are calculated.

Research results

The analysis of the structure of organized outbound tourist flow of the AZRF population in the period 2004–2021 reveals the prevalence of international tourism over domestic (Fig. 1). The growth in preference for foreign destinations, which has been outlined since 2004, reached its maximum by 2013, when only a fifth of the residents of the studied regions chose organized tourist trips around Russia. The period of restrictions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the launch of a program to subsidize domestic tourist trips (tourist cashback) had a dramatic impact on the choice of holiday destinations by the local population. These trends are typical for the Russian Federation as a whole.

Fig. 1. Dynamics of the formation of outbound organized tourism in the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation for the period 2004–2021, % 1.

Organized tourist flow abroad

The dynamics of the organized tourist flow abroad in total for the studied Arctic regions for the period 2004–2021 is subject to the general patterns of development of outbound tourism and correlates with the dynamics of the tourist flow in the whole of the Russian Federation (Fig. 2). Separately, we can single out the period of 2012–2014, when there is a maximum increase in outbound organized tourist flow abroad (more than 300 thousand people per year) and, accordingly, the share of the Arctic regions (4.7%) in the general tourist flow of the Russian Federation. On average, the share of the Arctic regions in the formation of outbound organized tourist flow of Russians abroad is 3.1% for the study period (median). The collapse of outbound organized tourism in 2020 is both a global and an all-Russian trend due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The gradual lifting of restrictions materializes in the growth of quantitative indicators of international tourism.

Source: compiled by the author based on state statistics.

' ■ " outbound tourist flow of citizens of the Russian Federation abroad, people

— ♦ — outbound tourist flow abroad of residents of the Arctic regions, people

Fig. 2. Dynamics of organized international tourism for the period 2004–2021, people 2

In the regional context, the formation of outbound organized tourism of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation abroad for the study period of 2004–2021 is mainly due to the tourist flow of residents of the Krasnoyarsk Krai and the Arkhangelsk Oblast (Fig. 3). The share of tourists in the

Fig. 3. Formation of outbound organized tourist flow in the regional context for the period 2004–2021, % 3.

• ²    Source: compiled by the author based on state statistics.

• ³    Source: compiled by the author based on state statistics.

Organized outbound tourist flow in the Russian Federation

There are some differences in the dynamics of domestic tourism development in comparison with international tourism (Fig. 4):

• •    Firstly, since 2009 there has been a steady growth trend in the internal tourist flow, which is typical for the Russian Federation as a whole, and for the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (with slight fluctuations in the indicator in some years);

• •    Secondly, the indicators of domestic tourism both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for the Arctic regions in 2021 reached their maximum, exceeding the values of the pre-pandemic 2019 (+37.1% and +7.5%, respectively).

■ Domestic tourism in the Russia, people

—•— Domestic tourism of residents of the Arctic zone , people.

Fig. 4. Dynamics of organized domestic tourism for the period 2004–2021, people 4

At the same time, while there is practically no sharp collapse in the value of organized domestic tourism in 2020 compared to the indicators of 2019 for the Russian Federation as a whole (-5.6%), there is a significant decline in the index for the Arctic regions — 32.1%. The average share of the studied regions in the Russian Federation is higher than in outbound international tourism (4.9%).

The main supplier of domestic tourists among the Arctic regions is the Republic of Karelia, which forms an average of 41.8% of outbound organized tourist flow in Russia (Fig. 5).

• ⁴    Source: compiled by the author based on state statistics.

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  100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

• ■    Murmansk Oblast                                         ■ Nenets Autonomous Okrug

Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug                          ■ Chukotka Autonomous Okrug

• ■    Republic of Karelia                                              ■ Komi Republic

• ■    Arkhangelsk Oblast (excluding Autonomous Okrug)              ■ Krasnoyarsk Krai

• ■    Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Fig. 5. Formation of outbound domestic tourist flow in the regional context for the period 2004–2021, % 5.

In the choice of residents of the Krasnoyarsk Krai, there has been a steady decline in interest in the Russian destination; other regions are characterized by a sufficient stability of preferences in choosing tours around the country.

The intensity of outbound organized tourism in the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation

The calculation of the indicator of the intensity of outbound organized tourist flows in the context of international and domestic tourism makes it possible to compare the objective mobility of the population of the studied subjects. The tourist preferences formed in the pre-pandemic period are reflected in the indicator for 2019, the calculation of data for 2021 allows us to consider overcoming modern challenges in the focus of the tourist interests of residents of the Arctic regions (Table 1).

Table 1

The intensity of outbound organized tourism in the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation 6

	region	international tourism		domestic tourism
		2019	2021	2019	2021
No.
1	Murmansk Oblast	37.2	17.1	10.0	27.8
2	Nenets Autonomous Okrug	46.0	15.1	6.1	7.4

5 Source: compiled by the author based on state statistics.

6 Source: compiled by the author based on state statistics.

3	Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug	14.5	6.9	14.3	5.5
4	Chukotka Autonomous Okrug	0.04	n.d.	0.9	0.3
regions partially included in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation
5	Republic of Karelia	39.0	20.2	115.7	140.4
6	Komi Republic	49.4	21.1	12.0	16.2
7	Arkhangelsk Oblast (without AO)	59.0	25.3	28.3	27.5
8	Krasnoyarsk Krai	25.7	11.6	7.0	9.0
9	Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)	16.3	7.7	11.7	15.6
median by Arctic region		37.2	16.1	11.7	15.6
median for the Russian Federation		-	11.6	-	14.0

The calculation of intensity confirms the fundamental change in the choice of tourist destinations by the population of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation. Thus, on average, the organized tourist flow abroad in 2021 decreased by 2.3 times compared to 2019, while the intensity of domestic tourism increased by 25%. In the regional context, the most significant reduction in the flow of tourists abroad occurred in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (a decrease by 3 times), the most significant increase in domestic tourism — in the Murmansk Oblast (an increase by 2.8 times). It should be noted that there was an increase in tourist trips within Russia in 2021 compared to 2019 in most Arctic regions. At the same time, the growth of organized tours in Russia among residents of the Arkhangelsk Oblast remained at the level of the pre-pandemic period. In contrast to the general trend, the Chukotka and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous okrugs show a decrease in the preference for domestic tourism, with the latter region showing similar dynamics in terms of trips abroad. Thus, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug occupies a separate position, characterized by a 2.4-fold decrease in outbound organized tourism in 2021 compared to 2019.

A comparison of the indicators of the intensity of organized outbound tourism in 2021 reveals an increased tourist activity of the population of the Arctic regions compared to the average Russian values, both for tours abroad and for domestic tourism. At the same time, in contrast to the average Russian trend, the preferences of residents of the Arctic regions are to a greater extent related to foreign destinations. The advantage is achieved mainly due to the choice of residents of the Komi Republic and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Geography of outbound organized tourism of Arctic residents of the Russian Federation

The geography of the choice of tourist destinations by residents of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation seems to be quite interesting, both in comparison with 2019 and 2021, and in comparison with the average Russian values. Since statistical data do not allow us to analyze the geography of domestic tourism destinations in the regional context, this study will consider the Russian destination as a whole. The choice of foreign destinations is analyzed in the country context.

It should be noted that the preferences of the population of the Arctic regions are quite similar, the only exception is the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, where in 2019 only two residents made organized tourist trips abroad, choosing the United Arab Emirates for recreation.

The preference for warm and hot countries of the Mediterranean Sea, Indian or Pacific

Ocean basin states is quite expected (Table 2).

Table 2

Comparison of tourist preferences of Arctic residents in the context of the countries (2019 and 2021) 7

	group of countries	total tourist flow, thousand people		share of tourist flow to groups of countries in the total outbound tourist flow of the Arctic regions, %
		2019	2021	2019	2021
1	Mediterranean countries (Greece, Egypt, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Tunisia, Turkey)	138.2	91.1	55.9	79.36
2	countries of the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins (Vietnam, Thailand)	59.6	1.6	24.1	1.4
3	countries of the Indian Ocean basin (India, UAE, Republic of Maldives)	11.7	5.7	4.7	5.0
4	countries of the Atlantic basin (Dominican Republic, Cuba)	7.4	7.3	3.0	6.4
5	China	11.4	0.03	4.6	0.02
Total:		228.3	105.8	92.4	92.5

In 2019, the selected 15 states account for almost the entire outbound organized tourist flow of residents of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation, the share of other countries is insignificant. When comparing the choice of tourist destinations under the influence of modern challenges (2019 and 2021), we can identify several multidirectional trends that are also typical for the Russian Federation as a whole:

• 1.    rapid growth in the number of Russian tourists received (Egypt by 16.4 times, the Republic of Maldives by 4.3 times);

• 2.    sharp decline in the number of tourists from the Russian Federation (China by 379 times, India by 180 times, Vietnam by 87.5 times, Italy and Spain by more than 40 times, Thailand by 26.7 times);

• 3.    preservation of the number of tourists with an increase in the share of Arctic regions in the outbound tourist flow of the Russian Federation (Dominican Republic, Cuba);

• 4.    reduction in the number of tourists while maintaining a share in the tourist flow of the Russian Federation (Turkey).

Thus, under the influence of the challenges of our time, on the one hand, there is a halving of the outbound organized tourist flow abroad, on the other hand, it is redistributed. Thus, in 2021, nine states (in descending order of tourist flow) became the leading destinations: Turkey, Egypt, the Dominican Republic, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Cyprus, the Republic of Maldives and Tunisia. At the same time, Turkey serves the dominant number of tourists from the outbound tourist flow from the Arctic regions abroad (58.7%), the fifth part falls on Egypt (17.5%). In the regional context, the leader in the number of Russians sent on tours abroad is the Arkhangelsk Oblast, the Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Murmansk Oblast and the Republic of Karelia.

• ⁷ Source: compiled by the author based on state statistics.

Conclusion

The study of the preferences of tourist destinations by the local population of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation for the period 2004–2021, as well as their comparison with the choice of the average resident of the state, made it possible to identify a number of general patterns and specifics of the development of organized outbound tourism based on official statistics. It is necessary to indicate the observed change in the volume of the organized tourist flow, as well as its redistribution between tourist destinations under the influence of the challenges of our time.

Thus, a long period of prevalence of international tourism over domestic one (median 63.1%) under the influence of modernity challenges was replaced in 2020–2021 by the reorientation of tourist flows to domestic tourism, which correlates with the all-Russian trends. In addition, the indicators of domestic tourism both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for the Arctic regions in 2021 reached their maximum, exceeding the values of the prepandemic 2019 (+37.1% and +7.5%, respectively).

On average, the organized tourist flow of the population of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation abroad in 2021 decreased by 2.3 times compared to 2019. Although the geography of international tourism of the residents of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is characterized by some stability in the choice of warm countries for recreation (Mediterranean countries, states of the Indian or Pacific Ocean basins), the challenges of our time have redistributed the tourist flow between foreign destinations. Thus, outbound tourism to the countries of the European Union has almost completely stopped and, on the contrary, it has increased to countries with a visa-free or simplified regime for tourists. The leading positions of Turkey among the Mediterranean states are periodically weakened by the influence of negative factors of both a geopolitical and biomedical nature, as well as the latest natural disasters. A series of disastrous earthquakes in February 2023 and the possibility of their recurrence, including in a number of resort provinces of the country (for example, Antalya, Istanbul), according to the forecasts of seismologists and geologists 8, introduces significant uncertainty, increasing the fears of tourists when choosing a Turkish destination.

In general, the population of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation, under the influence of the challenges of modernity, with the introduction of various incentive programs for tourism, as well as due to the development of the tourism and recreational sphere with an active marketing policy of promoting the tourism and recreational opportunities of the Russian regions, is actively beginning to be included in consumption of domestic tourism products. In addition, the economic opportunities of the inhabitants of the Arctic regions, the severity of natural and climatic conditions of living and working, along with the formed tourist preferences, stimulate the choice of warm and hot foreign destinations. In any case, we can assume a positive result: the choice of domestic tourism has a positive effect on the socio-economic development of the state and, in general, on the development of the Russian destination; opportunities for recreation in favorable natural and climatic conditions in the spring-autumn and especially winter period contribute to the restoration of the physical and emotional strength of a person, the reproduction of human capital. At the same time, preferences in the organization of tourist trips and in the choice of tourist destinations among residents of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation require a detailed study based on sociological tools in order to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of functioning of the tourist and recreational complex of the studied regions and the state as a whole, as well as directions for the development of the tourism sphere of the Russian Arctic in the context of tourist services for international and domestic tourists, taking into account the need for recreation of the local population in places of permanent residence.