The impact of the retirement age increase on the economy and attitudes of the population of the Murmansk oblast

The impact of the retirement age increase on the economy and attitudes of the population of the Murmansk oblast

Автор: Baranov Sergei V., Skufina Tatyana P., Gushchina Irina A.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Labor economics

Статья в выпуске: 1 т.13, 2020 года.

Бесплатный доступ

The article is devoted to a meaningful analysis of the impact of the retirement age increase on the economy of the Murmansk Oblast and the attitude of its residents. The pension system, which includes protectionism for the population of the North, has a significant impact on the economy, social life, and migration of the population. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of the retirement age changes on social and economic processes is particularly relevant for the Northern and Arctic territories. Three objectives were achieved: 1. Considering the change of the retirement age, the forecast for the number of able-bodied population of the Murmansk Oblast was made. It is shown that the increase of the retirement age will halt the steady decline of able-bodied population in the region, but it will not break the trend. Comparison with the results of the forecast for Russia as a whole showed that it qualitatively distinguishes the situation in the region from the national situation. 2. The features of GRP production in the Murmansk region, based on economic and statistical modeling, are reviewed. It is established that, with the current structure of the economy, a slight reduction of the decrease rate of the able-bodied population number will not have a significant impact on the production of GRP. 3. On the basis of the survey, conducted according to a representative regional sample of the Murmansk Oblast in 2019, attitudes of the Murmansk’s population were revealed. There is a very painful perception of the retirement age increase by the population; there is a persistent opinion that change of the retirement age does not meet the interests of the population of the North and the Arctic. A negative effect of the retirement age increase was diagnosed: a change of migration attitudes among the most significant group of the Murmansk Oblast’s population (from the perspectives of regional production) - people of young (18-29 years old) and middle (30-49 years old) ages. For example, a significant number of members of these age groups have already decided to leave the Murmansk Oblast. They link their decision to the factor of the retirement age increase. Thus, the positive effect - a decrease of the rate of the able-bodied population decline in the Murmansk region, caused by the retirement age increase - will be offset by a negative effect - the growth of the rate of migration losses in the region.

Еще

Retirement age increase, arctic, murmansk oblast, grp, number of able-bodied population, modelling, survey, people's attitides

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147225434

IDR: 147225434   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2020.1.67.9

Список литературы The impact of the retirement age increase on the economy and attitudes of the population of the Murmansk oblast

  • Harper S. Economic and social implications of aging societies. Science, 2014, vol. 346 (6209), pp. 587–591.
  • Vogel E., Ludwig A., Börsch-Supan A. Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation. Journal of Pension Economics & Finance, 2017, vol. 16 (1), pp. 81–107.
  • Tyrowicz J., Makarski K., Bielecki M. Reforming retirement age in DB and DC pension systems in an aging OLG economy with heterogeneous agents. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2016, vol. 5 (1), p. 8.
  • Skufina T., Baranov S., Samarina V., Korchak E. Increasing GDP production in the Russian Federation and raising the retirement age: is there a connection? AD ALTA: Journal of interdisciplinary research, 2019, vol. 9 (1), Special Issue VI, pp. 69–72.
  • Bloom D.E. et al. Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses. The Lancet, 2015, vol. 385 (9968), pp. 649–657.
  • Catalano M., Pezzolla E. The effects of education and aging in an OLG model: long-run growth in France, Germany and Italy. Empirica, 2016, vol. 43 (4), pp. 757–800.
  • Trofimova N. A. Use of select mortality tables for forecasting the number of recipients of different types of Pensions. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2010, vol. 21 (2), pp. 197–203.
  • Holzmann R. An optimistic perspective on population ageing and old-age financial protection. Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 2017, vol. 50 (2), pp. 107–137.
  • Holzmann R. Global pension systems and their reform: worldwide drivers, trends and challenges. International Social Security Review, 2013, vol. 66 (2), pp. 1–29.
  • Peng X., Mai Y. Population Ageing, Retirement Age Extension and Economic Growth in China: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis. Centre of Policy Studies and the Impact Project, 2013. 33 p.
  • Chistova E.V. Possibilities for increasing the retirement age in Russia in response to population ageing. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 2016, vol. 12 (3), рp. 127–138.
  • Baranov S.V., Skuf’ina T.P. Impact of retirement age increase on the production of gross domestic product in Russia. Innovatsii=Innovations, 2018, no. 9, pp. 38–44. (In Russian).
  • Sinyavskaya O.V. The Russian pension system in the context of demographic challenges and restrictions. Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VShE=The HSE Economic Journal, 2017, no.4 (21), pp. 562–591. (In Russian).
  • Skuf’ina T.P., Baranov S.V. The Phenomenon of Unevenness of Socio-Economic Development of Cities and Districts in the Murmansk Oblast: Specifics, Trends, Forecast, Regulation. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: Fakty, tendentsii, prognoz=Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2017, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 66–82. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.5.53.5. (In Russian).
  • Bielecki M. et al. Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes. Economic Modelling, 2016, vol. 52, pp. 125–143.
  • Wang H., Koo B., O’Hare C. Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics. Economic Modelling, 2016, vol. 52, pp. 749–763.
  • Puur A., Leppik L., Klesment M. Changes in pension take-up and retirement in the context of increasing the pension age: the case of Estonia in the 2000s. Post-Communist Economies, 2015, vol. 27 (4), pp. 497–516.
  • Barsukov V.N. From the Demographic Dividend to Population Ageing: World Trends in the System-Wide Transition. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: Fakty, tendentsii, prognoz=Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2019, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 167–182. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.11. (In Russian).
  • Kudrin A., Gurvich E. Population ageing and the threat of a budget crisis. Voprosy Ekonomiki=Economic Issues, 2012, no. 3, pp. 52–79. (In Russian).
  • Ramonov A. B. Healthy life expectancy as an integral assessment of the health of Russians. Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VShE=The HSE Economic Journal, 2011, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 497–518. (In Russian).
  • Toropushina E.E. Assessment of the level of the social infrastructure development in the North and the Arctic regions. EKO=ECO Journal, 2016, no. 6 (504), pp. 99–108. (In Russian).
  • Suopajärvi L., Poelzer G.A., Ejdemo T., Klyuchnikova E., Korchak E. Social sustainability in northern mining communities: A study of the European North and Northwest Russia. Resources Policy, 2016, vol. 47, pp. 61–68.
  • Shabunova A.A. Demographic policy: regional dimension. Ekonomika regiona=Regional Economy, 2016, no. 8, p. 59. (In Russian).
  • Minakir P. A., Krasnopolskiy B. Kh. Economic mechanisms of introducing new technologies for rational use of Arctic resources. Regionalistica=Regionalistics, 2018, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 12–24. (In Russian).
  • Il’in V.A., Povarova A.I. Consolidated taxation and its implications for regional budgets. Ekonomika regiona=Regional Economy, 2019, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 70–83. (In Russian).
  • Okrepilov V.V., Gagulina N.L. Assessing the quality of institutional transformations in the region’s economy. Ekonomika i upravlenie=Economics and Management, 2018, no. 12 (158), pp. 6–12. (In Russian).
  • Uskova T.V. Problems of public administration efficiency. Ekonomika Severo-Zapada: problemy i perspektivy razvitiya=Economy of the North-West: Issues and Prospects of Development, 2016, no. 1 (50), pp. 11–23. (In Russian).
  • Samarina V.P. Indicators of the reaction of the Central federal district regions to changes of external conditions. Regional’naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika=Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2012, no. 14, pp. 2–10. (In Russian).
  • Baranov S., Skufina T., Samarina V. Regional environment for gross domestic product formation (the case of Russia Northern Regions). Advanced Science Letters, 2018, vol. 24 (9), pp. 6335–6338. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1166/asl.2018.13047
  • Kroese D.P., Chan. J.C.C. Statistical Modeling and Computation. Springer, 2014. 400 p. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-8775-3
  • Ioan C.A., Ioan G. A generalization of a class of production functions. Applied Economics Letters, 2011, vol. 18, pp. 1777–1784.
  • Blaug M. Economic Theory in Retrospect. 5th edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997. Pp. 544–546.
Еще
Статья научная
QR-код для установки приложения SciUp Наведите камеру и скачайте бесплатное приложение SciUp