The impact of the retirement age increase on the economy and attitudes of the population of the Murmansk oblast

The impact of the retirement age increase on the economy and attitudes of the population of the Murmansk oblast

Автор: Baranov Sergei V., Skufina Tatyana P., Gushchina Irina A.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Labor economics

Статья в выпуске: 1 т.13, 2020 года.

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The article is devoted to a meaningful analysis of the impact of the retirement age increase on the economy of the Murmansk Oblast and the attitude of its residents. The pension system, which includes protectionism for the population of the North, has a significant impact on the economy, social life, and migration of the population. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of the retirement age changes on social and economic processes is particularly relevant for the Northern and Arctic territories. Three objectives were achieved: 1. Considering the change of the retirement age, the forecast for the number of able-bodied population of the Murmansk Oblast was made. It is shown that the increase of the retirement age will halt the steady decline of able-bodied population in the region, but it will not break the trend. Comparison with the results of the forecast for Russia as a whole showed that it qualitatively distinguishes the situation in the region from the national situation. 2. The features of GRP production in the Murmansk region, based on economic and statistical modeling, are reviewed. It is established that, with the current structure of the economy, a slight reduction of the decrease rate of the able-bodied population number will not have a significant impact on the production of GRP. 3. On the basis of the survey, conducted according to a representative regional sample of the Murmansk Oblast in 2019, attitudes of the Murmansk’s population were revealed. There is a very painful perception of the retirement age increase by the population; there is a persistent opinion that change of the retirement age does not meet the interests of the population of the North and the Arctic. A negative effect of the retirement age increase was diagnosed: a change of migration attitudes among the most significant group of the Murmansk Oblast’s population (from the perspectives of regional production) - people of young (18-29 years old) and middle (30-49 years old) ages. For example, a significant number of members of these age groups have already decided to leave the Murmansk Oblast. They link their decision to the factor of the retirement age increase. Thus, the positive effect - a decrease of the rate of the able-bodied population decline in the Murmansk region, caused by the retirement age increase - will be offset by a negative effect - the growth of the rate of migration losses in the region.

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Retirement age increase, arctic, murmansk oblast, grp, number of able-bodied population, modelling, survey, people's attitides

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147225434

IDR: 147225434   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2020.1.67.9

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