The socio-economic effects of the COVID 19 Pandemic process

The Coronavirus, which emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of December 2019 and spread to all countries, has had serious effects on the world's economic, political and social structure, and this process continues.

As it is known, human beings transitioned from a mobile and gathering life to a settled life around 10 thousand years BC, and thus communication with each other became possible, and interactions between people and cities began. People's contact with each other and their first interaction can be considered as the first steps of globalization. Settled life provided product development, over time, exchange (barter) emerged and reached its current level in the form of interactions with different regions and continents. There are two fundamental changes that affected the life and development of human beings throughout history. One is the agricultural revolution; the other is the industrial revolution. The agricultural revolution created effects that changed the fate of human beings. People were able to produce more than they needed and the financing of the progress that came until the industrial revolution was created. With the industrial revolution that emerged in the 1760s, the pace of development was much faster than the agricultural revolution and the transition to mass production began. This process triggered globalization on the one hand and enabled the development of new stages and technologies in industry on the other hand and has continued to the present day. After 2010, the phase called the 4th Industrial Revolution period began. At this stage, the world has become a “global village” very quickly within a digital process. This speed and dizzying developments have initiated the period of global interaction and spread in epidemic diseases as in every subject. Now, humanity has come face to face with the era of “global epidemics” or “global viruses”.

The developments experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in China on the last day of December 2019 and spread throughout the world, have different economic, political and social effects on countries and regions. The effects occur at the level of both people and states. This study makes social, economic and political assessments on how both people and states may be affected by the pandemic process and what developments may occur in the future.

Objective: To investigate the social, economic and political consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Methodology: To assess the development of events according to scientific sources and statistics.

Scientific novelty: The pandemic occurred on December 31, 2019. What are the consequences of the pandemic so far? What will be its future consequences? It is important to know this.

Brief information about important pandemics

In the twentieth century, the world has faced important pandemics (epidemics). One of the most important of these is the epidemic known as the "Spanish Flu" or "Great Flu Pandemic of 1918", which started in 1918 and caused the death of approximately 50 million people within 1 year. In fact, the real name of the disease is not "Spanish Flu". England, France and Germany, which participated in World War I, did not announce this epidemic that emerged at the end of the war to the public so that it would not affect the course of the war. Spain, on the other hand, did not enter the war and did not impose any restrictions on the announcement of the virus by the press, so it was known as the "Spanish Flu" because it was first announced to the public in this country. It is stated that since the disease coincided with World War I, regular records could not be kept and therefore it is difficult to know the exact number of deaths. Despite this, it is stated that approximately 5% of the world's population lost and the loss of life in the USA was more than 500 thousand. Considering that the first antibiotic was discovered in 1928 and the first flu vaccine in the 1940s, it is easier to understand how limited the treatment options were during the 1918 epidemic (Demircioğlu et al.; 2020: 18-19). Another important epidemic is the “1947 Cholera Epidemic”. It is stated that a total of 20,344 cases were seen and 10,627 deaths occurred in this epidemic, which started in the Eastern Nile Delta of Egypt on September 23, 1947 and ended on December 11, 1947. One of the important epidemics of the twentieth century is the “1957-1958 Asian Flu”. This flu first appeared in East Asia in February 1957 and spread to the world from there. It is stated that this epidemic, which spread in China in a short time and then spread to countries such as the USA, caused the death of 1 to 2 million people in total. It has cost fewer human lives than the Spanish Flu due to countries taking better measures to control this epidemic and prevent its spread compared to 1918. Another important disease that has existed since 1981 and has caused the death of approximately 40 million people in 40 years is HIV/AIDS. (Demircioğlu et al.; 2020: 33-40). The COVID-19 epidemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which emerged in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei province of China on December 31, 2019, quickly spread to hundreds of countries on 6 continents and went down in history as the first Pandemic caused by this virus (Birinci and Bulut; 2020: 62). As of 02.02.2021, in the weekly report published by the World Health Organization, the total number of cases reported from 222 countries and regions has exceeded 102 million and the total number of deaths has exceeded 2.2 million (Ministry of Health of the Republic of Turkey ..). The coronavirus pandemic, which has been transmitted to humans as a result of the consumption of various animal foods that are not sufficiently adapted to meet people's nutritional needs in China, has been one of the most severe seen to date. The most affected by the pandemic were developed countries, places with high population density and few healthcare facilities (Ortaş; 2020: 295).

Economic views on the social and economic role of the state

According to the results of anthropological research, it is understood that the first state in history was established in the Mesopotamia region. The region called Mesopotamia is located between the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and has fertile lands and extensive water resources. It is emphasized that the first state established in this region emerged approximately 5,300 years ago and hosted approximately 14 states. It is understood that the population of the states established in Mesopotamia reached up to 40,000. Other than Mesopotamia, regions such as Egypt, Anatolia, Crete, Greece, Rome, and China are among the regions where the first states emerged. What is meant by the factors that gave birth to the state are the elements that triggered the formation of states in societies immediately before the emergence of the state. It is stated that while force and struggle reasons were effective on the one hand in the emergence of the first known states in history, economic and social reasons played a triggering role on the other hand (Düvenci; 2018: 77). One of the important results revealed by the coronavirus is that the state has great importance especially in the management of the crisis process.

The view of the state in terms of basic economic ideas can be briefly summarized as follows:

In the Mercantilism approach in the 1450s, the understanding that the welfare of the society would be maximized with the "precious metals" obtained by a strong state and a strong military was adopted. The Physiocrats in the 1750s emerged as a period in which the mercantilist approach was weakened with the understanding of the "existence of natural order" and the agricultural sector was brought to the forefront. The period called "classical economics" and accepted as the beginning of economics as a science began with the work "The Wealth of Nations" written by Adam Smith in 1776. In this period, which operated in line with the free market economy approach, the role of the state was completely limited and it was held responsible only for "justice and diplomacy services" and "internal and external security". Apart from these, it was accepted that the state's intervention in the economy would disrupt the functioning order. This process worked effectively until 1929. However, the “world economic crisis” that emerged in 1929 and deeply affected the entire world showed that it was difficult to ensure stability if the state was not involved in the economy during crisis periods and that the state must intervene. John Maynard Keynes pioneered this process with his work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”. In the Marxist understanding of the state, it is envisaged that all economic and social issues should be under the auspices of the state. After 1980, a period began in which Neo-Liberal policies and an understanding based on almost profit as the main goal and the privatization of everything came to the fore again and Keynesian foresight was neglected in a sense. From the 2000s onwards, the acceleration of the digitalization period and especially the ambitions of the administrators of the great states and their desires to control resources both negatively affected the world balances and caused a regression or interaction processes similar to a dominatrix in the crises that would occur.

The pandemic process has shown that countries where the state's share is dominant, especially in the education and health sectors, can more easily manage crisis periods. One example of this is Turkey. The state's share in the health sector in Turkey is approximately 80%. Due to this dominant share, the pandemic process has been managed better in Turkey than in countries such as the USA, England, France and Italy. The shares of states in the economy can generally vary between 25% and 75%. It is possible to predict that the share of many states, especially in areas such as education and health sectors, will exceed 50% after the pandemic process. One of the important reasons underlying China's success with the coronavirus may be related to the high level of state power and authority. Finally, the fact that Russia was the country that survived the 1929 world economic crisis with the least damage also supports the importance of the state's effectiveness in crisis periods. The following conclusion should be drawn from here; a centrally planned economic model should not be advocated, however; a model that increases the effectiveness of the social state can be considered more rational. The social state is defined as follows; “A social state is a state that aims to provide all citizens with a minimum life befitting human dignity without hurting the honor and pride of its citizens.” This understanding is the main reason behind the efforts and success of many states such as Turkey and Azerbaijan in the fight against the virus.

Basic policies related to the pandemic process

As of today, approximately 1 billion people in the world live on the hunger threshold. The most affected population segment by this situation is children. The poor mostly deal with malnutrition and infectious diseases, while the rich deal with health problems caused by overnutrition. The ambition of people or states to have more has begun to destroy the healthy environment, and deaths have begun to occur due to environmental and water pollution. For example, more than 1 billion people in the world cannot access clean water resources, and groundwater is under threat due to global warming. Agricultural lands are increasingly polluted or become unproductive due to erosion. People are also being destroyed unnecessarily with increasing regional wars (Kaymakçı; 2020: 105). Here, the effects of viruses can be more severe due to the deteriorated and polluted world and resources.

In this process where the virus turns into a global epidemic, success can be achieved with the cooperation of the world, especially in vaccine studies. Otherwise, it will be difficult to end the virus and the socio-economic situation will be negatively affected.

If the pandemic process cannot be brought under control within about 1 year or continues for a long time, the biggest disaster situation after the Second World War may occur. In fact, looting, extortion, theft, mass riots and similar problems may arise in many Western countries. These problems do not occur in countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. Because the religious, cultural and family solidarity understandings in these countries prevent such problems from occurring. Failure to control the process may also lead to changes in the state administration and authorities of some countries.

The globalization process is a development that countries cannot change or prevent. For this reason, depending on the developments, countries are trying to make their own regulations in trade, education and health in line with the requirements of globalization, and on the other hand, they are trying to produce policies on developing or purchasing vaccines to get rid of the devastating effects of the virus. In addition, it has become necessary for them to develop their own models in order to overcome the “domino effect” of possible outbreaks or crises that may occur in later periods.

In the first and second stages of the pandemic process, the deficiencies of major states such as the USA in organizing and managing the necessary aid to countries in need and their own citizens may lead to a decrease in the reputation and trust of these countries at the international level. On the other hand, international trust has increased in countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, which have been able to manage this process better. Accordingly, it can be expected that international investments in countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan will increase in the postcrisis period.

In order for the impact of the pandemic to be felt less and for their citizens not to be victimized, many countries, both developed and developing, have tried to provide certain levels of monetary support to representatives of various sectors and their citizens. They have done this with both expansionary monetary and expansionary fiscal policies.

It can be said that in the economic policies of the states from now on, instead of the post-1980 neo-liberal policies of shrinking the state as much as possible, Keynesian policies advocating state intervention, especially in times of recession, will be implemented. Accordingly, it can be predicted that the governments that advocate far-right policies, rather than the more statist ones or those that can effectively operate the social state, will be permanent.

The pandemic process caused Trump to lose the elections in terms of the USA. Donald Trump, who was expected to win the election before the pandemic, lost the elections due to the impact of the process on society, along with other reasons. The fact that the vaccine was first found in China had a somewhat corrective effect on the negative image of this country as the country where the virus first emerged.

The models that will be more accepted from now on will be keeping the state strong, high savings rate, avoiding luxury consumption and practices that are far from populism.

Providing education on the internet during the pandemic process will encourage the continuation of distance education in certain areas in the following periods. In the health sector, models where the state's weight increases even more should be expected.

Especially in political studies, political formations that use scientific methods and methods will attract more attention and the perception that countries can be stronger in the future with scientific studies rather than ideological ones will become widespread.

One of the main discussion topics after the pandemic process will focus on issues such as whether the virus was prepared in a laboratory environment.

Economic effects of the pandemic

According to the Global Risks Report 2021 published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the global risk that will affect the world the most in the short term (2 years) is deaths due to the COVID-19 virus and the economic effects of the pandemic. The report determined that the common opinion of 841 global experts and decision-makers regarding the biggest risks in the short term will be "epidemic diseases" such as COVID-19 and the "livelihood crisis" due to the economic impact of the pandemic. According to the report, it is stated that the human and economic costs of COVID-19 will be severe, that it can set back years of progress in reducing poverty and inequality, and that it will further weaken social cohesion and global cooperation. Along with "epidemic diseases" and "livelihood crisis", the other 8 of the 10 risks that are most likely to occur in the next 2 years are estimated to be "unexpected weather events", "inadequate cybersecurity measures", "inequality in the digital world", "long-term stagnation in the economy", "terrorist attacks", "disappointment among young people", "erosion of social cohesion" and "human-induced environmental damage" According to the Global Risks Report, the most important risk in the medium term (3-5 years) is the "bubble in asset prices". Accordingly, in a large economy, the prices of housing, investment funds, stocks and other assets are increasingly moving away from the real economy and an unreal price increase is experienced. Other risks that are likely to be experienced in the medium term are listed as "price instability", "commodity shocks", "debt crisis", "rupture in state relations", "interstate conflict", "failure in cybersecurity" and "failure in technical governance". Long-term risks covering a period longer than 5 years are listed as "weapons of mass destruction", "collapse of states", "loss of biodiversity", "natural resource crises", "collapse in social security", "collapse of multilateralism", "collapse in industry", "failure in the fight against climate change" and "stance against science". As can be seen, while the pandemic process directs countries to policies aimed at solving their own problems on the one hand, it also requires them to be cautious against possible risks or epidemics in the future. On the other hand, the most affected population during the pandemic has been young people. The young population is more negatively affected in terms of changes in education, economic expectations, employment, mental health and social life.

The most important effect of the pandemic process before the vaccine was found was that it increased uncertainty and negatively affected the world economy. In the “December Interim Economic Outlook Report” published by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), it is stated that progress in the vaccine and treatment against COVID-19 has increased expectations and reduced uncertainty. In this context, the OECD emphasized that positive expectations and hope for the future have increased for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic with the vaccine and the recovery in Asia, and lowered its global economic contraction forecast, which it announced in September as 4.5 percent, to 4.2 percent. While the growth forecast for 2021 was revised down from 5 to 4.2, 3.7 percent growth is foreseen for 2022. The report also emphasizes that global GDP will accelerate in the next 2 years after a sharp decline in 2020. The report indicates that global GDP will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021, led by a strong recovery in China. The US economy’s contraction forecast, previously announced as 3.8 percent for 2020, was lowered to 3.7, and the country’s growth forecast for 2021 was revised from 4 percent to 3.2 percent. The US economy is projected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2022. The Eurozone’s 7.9

percent contraction forecast for 2020 was lowered to 7.5 percent, and growth for 2021 was lowered from 5.1 percent to 3.6 percent. The UK is expected to be one of the countries that will shrink the most among OECD countries. The country’s contraction forecast for 2020 was raised from 10.1 percent to 11.2 percent, while next year’s growth forecast was lowered from 7.6 percent to 4.2 percent. According to the report, China is the only country among OECD countries that will record growth this year. The growth forecast for the Chinese economy, previously announced as 1.8 percent for 2020, has not been changed. It is projected that the Chinese economy will grow 8 percent next year and 4.9 percent in 2022. The contraction forecast for 2020 was reduced from 10.2 percent to 9.9 percent for India, from 10.2 to 9.2 for Mexico, and from 11.2 to 12.9 percent for Argentina. The OECD estimates that the Turkish economy will shrink in 2020 and grow in 2021 and 2022. In the OECD report, the contraction forecast for the Turkish economy, which was 2.9 percent in September for 2020, was reduced to 1.3. The Turkish economy's 3.9 percent growth forecast in 2021 was reduced to 2.9 percent, and it was stated that it will grow by 3.2 percent in 2022 . According to these figures, it can be predicted that the world economy will shrink in 2020 and that a rapid recovery process will be experienced after June 2021, especially with the increase in vaccination. However, in order for shrinking economies to recover more quickly, the governments of each country need to work much more effectively. The world economy is expected to shrink by over 4 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic. It is stated that this rate is the largest contraction in the world economy since the 2009 global economic crisis. The debt stock, which has started to increase rapidly worldwide due to increased public expenditures during the pandemic, also threatens the sustainability of public finances . On the other hand, it is also known that many countries have resorted to printing money to relieve the problems that the pandemic has brought to society. The inflationary process caused by printing money is also among the issues that governments must combat in the short term.

According to the 2020 contraction forecast of over 4% in the world economy, it can be said that the approximate world income loss will be 5 trillion dollars.

The Turkish economy closed the third quarter of 2020 with a growth of 6.7 percent. It is understood that it will close 2020 with a positive growth of approximately 1 percent, despite the minus 5 percent forecast of some organizations such as the IMF. This situation shows that it will be one of the rare countries that closed 2020 with positive growth, along with China. This can be explained by the solid infrastructure established in the 2000, 2001 and 2008 crises. In particular, the decrease in the uncertainty environment and the success shown in the Karabakh War together with Azerbaijan may increase the interest in Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Turkey, which ranks sixth in world tourism and eleventh in tourism revenues, has suffered the most income loss from the pandemic in the tourism sector. Turkey’s tourism revenue in 2019 was 34.5 billion dollars. Its ratio to GDP corresponds to 4.7%. This means that Turkey’s tourism revenue has decreased by approximately 50%, which corresponds to 2.3% of GDP. There are also issues that show that Turkey will emerge from the crisis with an advantage. The decline in oil and natural gas prices in particular will have a positive impact on Turkey, a major energy importer. Turkey will also be able to gain an advantage as a reliable country in terms of global logistics and supply chains vacated by China.

Turkey has attracted approximately 165 billion dollars of foreign capital in the last 20 years, 60% of which came from the European Union countries. Therefore, the promotion and continuity of a trust environment will provide an advantage for attracting capital in the new period. In fact, in a sense, the economic and social success policies achieved between 2002 and 2010 need to be reformed and implemented. The fact that Turkey has gained the ability to shape the policies it applies to Western countries not according to the “IMF and World Bank imposition” but “within an equal and fair framework” has emerged as an important advantage in this process. The investments and technological infrastructure investments that Turkey and Azerbaijan, whose regional and global reputations have increased with the Karabakh Victory, will make together will increase the interest in both countries.

In terms of the agricultural sector, industrial chemicals and high-input production techniques used to increase productivity have weakened the production potential of the soil and have caused groundwater to be polluted by the chemicals used (Ortaş; 2020: 298). This situation may cause food products to be strategic for the future.

The “industrial capitalism” experienced by the world after the 1760s can be evaluated as “financial capitalism” (its main instruments are the IMF and the World Bank) in the period after World War II and as “digital capitalism” after 2010. In line with these values, an approach in which everything is evaluated within the framework of “economic man” has come to the forefront in the level of world economic and social development reached. In the following period, a process will begin in which this understanding will be seriously discussed at the international level. In this context, in the digital age experienced, discussions on creating a livable, fair and sharing world through “digital utility” will come to the forefront, not “digital capitalism”.

Social effects of the pandemic

The pandemic process can have both positive and negative effects on people and society. As positive effects; it is stated that human values will be questioned and ownership will increase, solidarity and assistance between people will increase, polarization and conflicts will be reduced, excessive and unnecessary consumption will be reduced and the phenomenon of the social state will become widespread. As for the negative effects; economic stagnation, unemployment, racism and introversion will increase, the living conditions of the poor and vulnerable segments of the population will deteriorate, the tendency for everyone to take care of themselves at the level of states and individuals will increase, and psycho-social problems will increase. The effects that will emerge in this direction can be summarized as follows (Eren; 2020:193-200).

The tourism sector is the sector that will be most affected by social distance practices. The mobility due to international travel and education collaborations, which reached its peak with globalization, will not be able to reach this level for a certain period.

In the future, interpersonal relations will be shaped largely by technological means.

A situation that will be reflected positively in human habits will be in the form of being content with less and more.

Healthier and more balanced eating habits and tendencies will increase.

The pandemic process will cause people to empathize and the perceptions of rich and poor to change. Because it has been seen in this process that people from all classes can be victims of the pandemic.

For individuals and states, the environment, sustainability and protection of natural resources will become a priority.

There will be changes in people's good habits, beliefs, taboos and other behaviors. During the pandemic, it has been seen that the slogan "goodness is more contagious than the virus" has come true. There have been many examples of people helping the poor or paying their bills. Such behaviors indicate that social transformations may occur in the future.

It is understood that flexible working or working from home models will increase even more with the help of technology in the coming period.

Online retail shopping will become widespread in commercial life and this habit will continue after the pandemic.

It is understood that distance education will become widespread and health services will evolve towards state control.

Models that include easy transportation, comfortable and simple accommodation opportunities and health services will become widespread in the tourism sector.

Scientific studies will focus on renewable energy and accordingly air, water and environmental pollution may decrease.

Returns from big cities to smaller settlements and villages will begin and agricultural production may increase.

Services such as title deed transactions, personalized health services, immigration and passport transactions will be carried out online through channels such as e-government with the idea of contactless transactions.

Within the scope of social innovations, arrangements and formations that will help vulnerable and difficult people will increase.

Political effects of the pandemic

The pandemic may have some political effects both on a country basis and on regional powers. The political effects of the pandemic can be summarized in general terms as follows (Karabulut; 2020: Yeşil Iğdır).

During this process, countries that can meet the needs of their societies well with their own internal resources and thus prevent economic difficulties will be at an advantage. This will provide an advantage in terms of both international reputation and prestige and will make it easier for them to face the future by creating confidence in their economic power. From this perspective, the USA and European countries seem to be at an advantage. Because these countries will benefit from their current economic power advantages. Approximately 63% of the amount currently held as reserve money in the world is in dollars and 22% in euros. Again, world income is approximately 84 trillion dollars. The largest amount of support given to countries from world income to prevent them from experiencing economic problems during the crisis process consists of the support given by the USA to its own society. Therefore, it can be said that those who take strong economic measures are again countries with strong economies, and they are advantageous in this respect.

Countries whose international reputation will increase in the post-pandemic period will be countries that are effective in helping countries in trouble. These countries will gain a certain ground in the international arena. At the same time, it will be seen that there will be fierce competition between countries that want to put themselves in the forefront. It is even possible to say that this process has started. The criticism process that has started between the US and EU countries, known as Western states, and China points to this. The US-China competition and tension will be one of the most important issues of the post-pandemic period. In particular, China changed the perception created by the West after World War II, "the idea that the only important civilization in the world is Western civilization", and it started to affect the balances in the East. During the globalization process, world production was shaped as China-centered. China was effectively using this advantage of being a center in the world. In other words, it was "intervening with the economy, not with the military" in the country or region to be visited. This structure may change in the following process. In other words, the world production center may shift to countries and regions other than China. It is possible to evaluate this as the policy of "not putting all eggs in one basket" or "portfolio diversification" of developed countries. Because the fact that the main production center is China has started to create economic, political and military problems for Western countries. Turkey is one of the most important countries that has the capacity to gain advantage in this respect. Until now, foreign investments coming to Turkey have been insufficient. The process may create an opportunity to complete this. For example, Turkey's national income, exports and population each have a share of approximately 1 percent in the world. However, its share from world investments is 0.4 percent. Therefore, Turkey will have the opportunity to increase this share with investments that will leave China. International capital prefers more secure countries. The political and economic axis shift between the West and China will ensure that countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, which have ended terrorism, have a democratic system similar to Western countries in the Islamic geography, have a deep-rooted and historical state tradition, are geographically close to the West and have strategic importance, are preferred. It should be said that in order to achieve this, the current environment of trust in Turkey and Azerbaijan needs to be effectively promoted.

In the production and technology relationship between the West (the US and the European Union) and China; it is seen that China, which started by imitating the West, has finally reached a stage where it has reached very advanced technology. This situation has not been a desirable situation for the West or the founders of the free market economy, who previously chose this country as a “production base” to benefit from cheap labor in China. Because it is not desirable for such a country, which is politically in cooperation with Russia and has almost one-fifth of the world's population, to become stronger. Therefore, it is highly likely that this center will change in the post-pandemic period.

The direction in which the thoughts of multinational companies supporting US President Joe Biden will change will also be effective in shaping relations between the US and China.

It is possible to say that the prominent issues of the post-pandemic will be areas such as bioterrorism, biointelligence, biotechnology, biochemistry and the pharmaceutical sector. Countries with superiority in these areas will gain an advantage in the face of a possible global epidemic or attack.

Western capitalism has reached the stage where the famous philosopher Thomas Hobbes said, “Man is a wolf to man.” This pandemic process may be the beginning of a period in which many things will be thought about and discussed in philosophical and human terms and new model and application suggestions can be made. In this context, it can be said that the concept of "social state" will increase its importance in the world and Turkey.

As a result of the developments experienced worldwide, the following assessment can be made for the USA. The USA still has the most advanced technology, the highest capital and economic size in the world. However, its most important loss as a result of the wrong policies it has implemented is its power of persuasion, its reliability and the formation of a very strong international opinion about its unfairness.

A different approach that the pandemic process may bring is this; Russia-China and the USA will evaluate the process the world has reached in the trio or at the United Nations and reach an agreement on developing appropriate policies. In the event of such a possibility, decisions may be made to reshape the world. In the event of a consensus, decisions beneficial to the environment and soil, in short, to human life, can be implemented worldwide.

In the new period, the understanding of "economic nationalism" seems to come to the fore among countries. In fact, this process started with Trump winning the US elections. The pandemic process may accelerate this by spreading it. For this reason, the inward-looking economic and social regulations of countries will be important. In other words, countries that can strengthen their technical, capital, raw material and entrepreneurial infrastructure will be advantageous.

The undesirable outcome is; a conflict or war between countries regarding the shaping of the world after the pandemic. Such a possibility would be a result in which humanity loses once again and the beginning of bad years to come.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has been experienced throughout 2020 and whose effects seem to continue in 2021, has deeply affected countries socially, economically and politically. It is not known exactly how long it will continue and what the effects of the vaccines found will be. It can be said that the main losers of the pandemic process will be labor-intensive countries that have not caught up with the technological development level of the age. Because these countries will either be only recipient countries or dependent countries in keeping up with the new order. For example, in the new distance education process that can be shaped in terms of the education sector, technology-producing countries will be advantageous in terms of continuing education. Other countries will try to continue their systems as recipients and dependents of technology producers. Similarly, the developed countries of the world have been the ones who discovered the vaccine. Other countries will be in the position of purchasing these vaccines.

The pandemic process we are experiencing shows that the world system should not be viewed solely economically. The superiority of countries is not always related to their economy, but also to the civilizational standards they possess. For example, the USA is number one in the world in terms of income. However, while fighting the Corona pandemic, it was possible to experience in this country that those without income or those who were black were left to die more. However, in many countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, treatment can be provided free of charge without any distinction of income or person. For this reason, it is meaningful and important to apply or transform the economic opportunities we have with a civilizational understanding that will ensure the survival and development of people. The philosophy of “let people live so that the state lives” in Turkish culture is also a requirement of this civilizational understanding. If the process experienced in 2020 does not return to normal, the impact of the pandemic may be greater than the 50 million unemployed, 42% decrease in world production and 65% decrease in world trade of the world economic crisis experienced in 1929. Because, the globalization level of the world in 1929 was much slower than today's level a century later. For this reason, the current “domino effect” is greater. For this reason, it may be beneficial for Turkey and Azerbaijan to develop models similar to the operation of the Soil Products Office for each sector in the following periods and to move towards a structure that will act as an “automatic stabilizer”. In other words, in years when there is a lot of product or production, it is necessary to activate a certain section in unexpected situations and ensure that the balance is not disrupted. Otherwise, the negative effects of unexpected developments are high. Some structural reforms and arrangements that Turkey will implement domestically will make it easier for it to be effective in the possible world economic and political design after the pandemic. Among these, the following points can be highlighted. Reforming the electoral and political party system, activating education, reforming the justice system in terms of speed and fairness, reducing external dependency on imports of intermediate goods and raw materials, increasing the savings rate, adopting import substitution in production, reducing external dependency on energy, saving tax revenues from the weight of indirect taxes and transforming them into a structure that is weighted towards direct taxes (income tax), maintaining the positive results achieved in the current account balance and stabilizing macroeconomic performance indicators (primarily growth, unemployment and inflation) will bring Turkey to the forefront both in terms of its internal balances and in terms of being an internationally preferred country. Similarly, the fact that the State of Azerbaijan has a strong economy and international commercial and political relations will enable it to easily manage crisis processes in the future. The fact that Turkey and Azerbaijan conduct scientific research and invest in technological inventions in cooperation will further strengthen the position and importance of both countries in the region and the world. The understanding of cooperation and solidarity shown during the Karabakh War is also an indication that the two countries will establish more social, economic and political partnerships from now on. The interests of both countries require increased cooperation.