Alarming prospects of Russian regional budgets

In December 2016, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation adopted the law “On the Federal budget for 2017 and the planned period of 2018-2019”. In the document, an important place is given to the prospects of territorial budget systems functioning, interaction between the federal and sub-federal budgets. It is noted that budget projections take into account the difficult socio-economic situation due to systemic risks associated with the geopolitical situation and counter-sanctions and high dependence of the Russian economy and budget system on the external economic environment. The results of the budget process show that the load on territorial budgets is not reduced. According to calculations of the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences, during 9 months in 2016, half of regions had budget imbalance. In a number of regions which are donors to the federal budget there was a decline in tax revenue growth rates. The increase of government debt continues, which does not ease the debt burden on regional budgets, which excesses one third of its revenue sources. The article presents the results of analysis of basic parameters of regional budgets in Russia in 2017- 2019. The purpose for analysis is to assess the dynamics of income and expenditures, sustainability and level of debt burden of regional budgets. Particular emphasis is put on intergovernmental relations, the main qualitative characteristic of which is gradually decreasing financial aid to the regions. The main conclusion of the research is that in the upcoming years, changes in fiscal policy of the Federal centre aimed at hard consolidation rather than at creating conditions for economic growth, are not expected. The result of the policy would be projected stagnation in growth rates of all important macro-economic indicators, including those reflecting the population’s standard of living. The research is based on official data of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, Federal Treasury, Federal Tax Service.