Uloga i značaj logistike u diverzifikaciji rizika uvozne zavisnosti Republike Srbije od nafte i naftnih derivata

Автор: Veselinović Milan, Milošević Nikola

Журнал: Ekonomski signali @esignali

Статья в выпуске: 1 vol.18, 2023 года.

Бесплатный доступ

Nakon izbijanja sukoba u Ukrajini početkom 2022. godine, usledio je niz događaja koji su uticali na promenu međunarodnog poretka i kompletnu geopolitičku scenu. Došlo je do ekonomskog pregrupisavanja i redefinisanja međudržavnih odnosa, te je kod pojedinih država došlo do pogoršavanja ili prekida odnosa, a kod drugih do produbljivanja i jačanja saradnje. Imajući u vidu da su pojedini lideri u izvozu nafte i naftnih derivata, a neke najveći uvoznici istih, promenilo se i međunarodno tržište ovih energenata. To pokezuju i cene nafte i naftnih derivata na međunarodnom tržištu, kao jasan pokazatelj izmenjenih uslova na strani ponude i potražnje. Sekjuritizacija snabdevanja naftom i naftnim derivatima, kao i sprečavanje negativno-inflacionih posledica cenovnih šokova ovih energenata na unutrašnje privredne tokove podrazumeva strateški pristup u upravljanju lancem snabdevanja i logistici. Uspešno nošenje sa ovakvim izazovima podrazumeva višestran i sinhronizovan pristup od strane države odnosno nadležnih subjekata. Pre svega, države odnosno subjekti koji ih predstavljaju, mogu potpisati dugoročne aranžmane o snabdevanju naftom i naftnim derivatima, što se ne može smatrati apsolutnim rešenjem na duži rok, s obzirom na opšte geopolitičke okolnosti, ali i praksu u bilateralnoj saradnji. Zatim, države mogu da pokrenu proizvodnju nafte i naftnih derivata iz konvencionalno-komercijalnoh izvora, ukoliko za to postoje finansijski i objektivno-tehnički uslovi. Treći, i ne manje važniji pristup, je stvaranje uslova za eksploataciju obnovljivih izvora energije, a koji mogu pomoći korisnicima da zadovolje svoje energetske potrebe. Time bi obnovljivi izvori energije smanjili tražnju za ostalim energentima, pa ukoliko je zemlja uvozno zavisna od fosilnih goriva, smanjile bi se i potrebe za uvozom istih, odnosno smanjila bi se uvozna zavisnost zemlje. Sva tri pristipa su u funkciji diverzifikacije rizika od uvoza goriva, a ukoliko se ovoj sferi ne pridaje pažnja, svi privredni tokovi bilo koje zemlje uvoznice nafte i naftnih derivata mogu biti drastično narušeni. Primera za načinjene greške u strategiji nabavke nafte i naftnih derivata, odnosno gasa u prvom planu, ima mnogo. Ovim radom su obuhvaćeni najinteresantniji primeri iz prakse u cilju projekcije rizika i štete sa kojima su se uvozno zavisne zemlje od nafte i naftnih derivata suočile usled najnovijih dešavanja u Ukrajini. U ovom radu autori ističu i ekonomske aspekte koji odražavaju moguće smerove diverzifikacije rizika od uvoza nafte i naftnih derivata, kao i povezanost diverzifikacije uvoznog rizika sa snabdevanjem i logistikom u Republici Srbiji.

Еще

Snabdevanje naftom i naftnim derivatima, uvozna zavisnost, upravljanje snabdevanjem

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/170204011

IDR: 170204011   |   УДК: 339.562:656.7(497.11); 330.524:620.92(4)   |   DOI: 10.5937/ekonsig2301011V

The role and importance of logistics in diversifying the risk of import dependence of the Republic of Serbia on oil and petroleum products

After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in early 2022, a series of events followed that influenced the change of the international order and the entire geopolitical scene. There has been an economic regrouping and redefinition of interstate relations, and in some countries there has been a deterioration or breakin of relations, and in others there has been a deepening and strengthening of cooperation. Bearing in mind that some are leaders in the export of oil and petroleum products, and some are the biggest importers of the same, the international market of these energy products has changed. This is also indicated by the prices of oil and petroleum products on the international market, as a clear indicator of the changed conditions on the supply and demand side. Securitization of the supply of oil and petroleum products, as well as the prevention of negative-inflationary consequences of price shocks of these energies to internal economic flows implies a strategic approach in supply chain management and logistics. Successfully coping with such challenges implies a multifaceted and synchronized approach by the state or competent entities. First of all, states or entities representing them may sign long-term arrangements on the supply of oil and petroleum products, which cannot be considered an absolute solution in the long term, given the general geopolitical circumstances, but also the practice in bilateral cooperation. Then, states can start the production of oil and petroleum products from conventional-commercial sources, if there are financial and objective-technical conditions for this. The third, and no less important approach, is to create conditions for the exploitation of renewable energy sources, which can help users meet their energy needs. This would reduce the demand for other energy sources, so if the country is imported dependent on fossil fuels, the need for imports would also reduce the import dependence of the country. All three approaches are in the function of diversifying the risk of fuel imports, and if this sphere is not given attention, all economic flows of any oil and petroleum products importing country can be drastically disrupted. There are many examples of mistakes made in the procurement strategy of oil and petroleum products, i.e. gas in the foreground. This paper covers the most interesting examples from practice in order to project the risks and damages that imported countries dependent on oil and petroleum products have faced due to the latest developments in Ukraine. In this paper, the authors also point out the economic aspects that reflect possible directions of diversification of risks from the import of oil and petroleum products, as well as the connection of diversification of import risk with supply and logistics in the Republic of Serbia.

Еще

Список литературы Uloga i značaj logistike u diverzifikaciji rizika uvozne zavisnosti Republike Srbije od nafte i naftnih derivata

  • Blanchard, S.B. 2014. Logistics engineering and management. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hal.
  • EUROSTAT - Annual Report of economy, finance, and energy, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4187653/13722723/Natural+gas+import+dependency+2021.jpg/fb005f80-3902-5cac-f74a-2b5a59118e37?t=1650362833932, accessed on 2.3.2022;
  • Fugate, B.S., Mentzer, J.T., & Stank, T.P. 2011. Logistics performance: Efficiency, effectiveness, and differentiation. Journal of Business Logistics, 31(1), pp.43-62. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2158-1592.2010.tb00127.x.
  • Glas, A., Hofmann, E., & Eßig, M. 2013. Performance‐based logistics: A portfolio for contracting military supply. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 43(2), pp.97-115. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1108/ijpdlm-12-2011-0229.
  • International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/articles/frequently-asked-questions-onenergy-security, IEA - accessedon 10.3.2022;
  • Mirković, O. I., Vasić, B. i Radovanović, M. (2018). Ensuring global energy security – the role of Russian energy policy. In: Radovanović, M (Ed.) Energy Security: Perspectives, Improvement Strategies and Challenges. NOVA PUBLISHERS. ISBN: 978-1-53613-508-4.
  • OPEC - Annual Report of World Gas Importers and Exporters, available at https://asb.opec.org/data/ASB_Data.php, accessed on 24.4.2022;
  • Siddi, M. (2017). Role of Power in EU–Russia Energy Relations: The Interplay between Markets and Geopolitics. Europe-Asia Studies 70: 1552-1571;
  • Siljkovic, B. and Jokic, B. (2010). Financial and Economic Crisis in the USA. Ekonomski signali – Journal of High School of Vocational Studies Pec, vol. 5, nb. 2,p.35–59. UDK: 338.124.4(73)"2007/2009",336.76(73);
  • Song, L., Fu, Y., Zhou, P. and Lai, K.K. (2017). Measuring national energy performance via Energy Trilemma Index: A Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis. Energy Economics 66: 313 – 319;
  • Speight, J. (2019). Natural gas. Gulf Professional Publishing. ISBN: 9780128095706;
  • Tverberg, G.E. (2012). Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis. Energy 37 (1):27-34;
  • Umbach, F. (2010). Global energy security and the implications for the EU, Energy Policy, 38 (3): 1229 – 1240;
  • Veselinovic, M. (2020). AquaSana Company: Marketing Mix Concept. From Theory to Practice - Problem Based Approach. The Book of Case Studies T2P/CTPCIE, Co-founded by ERASMUS+, Pristina, ISBN: 978-9951-693-92-9, CASE #46, p. 126;
  • Dvornik, S. i Dvornik, I. (2018). Energetska sigurnost - novi izazovi europske vanjske politike. Jesenski i Turk, Zagreb. ISBN: 9789532227871;
  • Đukić, S. (2014). Ruski gas u Evropi - od detanta do Južnog toka. Službeni glasnik. ISBN 978-86-519-0909-5;
  • Zdravković, D., Radukić, S. i Veselinović, M. (2012). Perspectives of Renewable Energy Utilization in Serbia. Facta Universitatis - Economics and Organization Themes. The University of Nis. Vol. 9, No 3, 2012 pp. 381 - 391. UDC 620.91(497.11).
  • Kovač, M. i Popović, M. (2013). Evropska energetksa bezbednost i Ruska Federacija. Vojno delo. 65 (4): 22-46;
  • Milankov, M.A., Dronjak, M. Ž., i Parezanović, V. D. (2015). Contribution to better understanding of logistics. Vojnotehnički glasnik/Military Technical Courier, 63(4), pp.68-98 (in Serbian). Available at: https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg63-6467
  • Parezanović, M. (2014). Energetska bezbednost. nova Srpska politička misao, Beograd. ISBN: 9788684321215;
  • Pravno informacioni sistem Republike Srbije. (2020). Energetski bilans. Strategija industrijske politike Republike Srbije od 2021. do 2030. godine: 35/2020-3. Dostupno na https://www.pravnoinformacionisistem.rs/SlGlasnikPortal/eli/rep/sgrs/vlada/strategija/2020/35/1/reg
  • Republički zavod za Statistiku. (2019). Model makroekonomskih projekcija za testiranje dugoročne održivosti duga i performansi rasta, 2019-2030. ISSN 1820-1148. Dostupan na
  • https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2019/pdf/G20198006.pdf
  • Radovanović, T. M. (2019). Energetska bezbednost. Univerzitet Edukons - Univerzitet Educons, Sremska Kamenica – Sremska Kamenica. ISBN: 978-86-87785-95-3;
Еще