Personnel training management in modern conditions of labor market transformation

The article examines the problem of the shortage of managerial decisions in the personnel training system in the context of the structural transformation of the labor market. The relevance of the work is due to the gap between educational programs and the real demand for competencies, compounded by the lack of operational monitoring of microdata on employment, wages and labor migration. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the need for a transition to forecast-oriented management and to develop an architecture for an operational microdata monitoring system for accurate forecasting of personnel shortages and an objective assessment of return on investment in education. As a result of the analysis, key institutional, technological and regulatory barriers preventing the use of detailed data in educational policy have been identified. The scientific novelty lies in the development of the concept of a Federal integrated System for monitoring the Labor Market and educational trajectories, combining administrative registers, digital footprints and longitudinal panels. Unlike existing studies based on aggregated statistics with a significant time lag, the proposed approach provides a transition from reactive administration to proactive human capital management based on predictive analytics. The practical significance of the work consists in the formation of methodological recommendations for synchronizing admission control figures with demand dynamics and the introduction of targeted financing of educational programs with proven effectiveness.