Regional development management with two-level “industry - organization” support model

The growth of the country’s economy, which is commonly indicated by the increase of GDP, is a primary goal of the Russian Federation. To achieve said goal, it is required to identify control factors contributing to the growth and model relationship between them. The approach of analysis by separate levels of management (in fact, the “black box” approach) should be replaced by the decomposition of the system into its elements by levels: country (indicator - gross domestic product), region (indicator - gross regional product), enterprise (indicator - revenue, value added). Purpose of the study. The analysis of the economy of the Russian Federation as an aggregate of its regions, industries and organizations; growth opportunities examples review; introduction of selected cases that facilitate managerial decision-making. Identification of dependencies between the dynamics of indicators of the country and regions and indicators of enterprises. Analysis of growth opportunities for the economy of the model region and assessment of resource needs to ensure growth. Materials and methods. Mathematical modelling and statistical methods for the analysis of economic indicators. Formulation of optimization problems. Regression models for determining dependencies between economic indicators. Application of Big Data processing methods. Results. The problem of gross regional product growth was formulated. The mathematical model of the relation of gross regional product, industry revenue and selected organization's revenues was developed. The example of the model region is considered on the example of the Chelyabinsk region and the model industry on the example of manufacture. Statistically significant dependence of revenue and Value Added was confirmed by the example of model industry and model region. The regression model for sector contribution to gross regional product was developed and its parameters determined. A rough estimation of the required investments for growth is provided. Conclusion. A comprehensive model linking GDP, gross regional product, industry revenue and aggregate companies’ revenue in an industry was developed. Conducted analysis of the economy as an aggregate of its elements indicates the importance of industry companies as a fundamental growth-generating unit.