The fifth political cycle of Russian president Vladimir Putin: “cosmetic repairs” for crony capitalism or a transition to “social capitalism”?

The new political cycle and Vladimir Putin’s fifth presidential term are beginning in rather difficult and contradictory conditions for Russia. On the one hand, there are more and more signs that NATO countries are preparing for a direct military conflict with our country; this fact leads to an escalation of the already tense international situation. On the other hand, there are still no signs in the domestic political arena that the elites (primarily in the public administration system, representatives ofbig business) are beginning to feel the essence of the historical moment and, accordingly, shift their motivation and their values from personal interests to the interests of national security. The reason lies in the fact that although the President is adopting important decisions necessary for the start of a new political cycle (formulation of national development goals until 2030, 2036, appointment of responsible executors for their implementation), he has not given an answer to the question of what kind of State we are building. The State of “social capitalism” or “crony capitalism”? The need for an answer to this question (and specifically from the President) has been maturing in society for many years and has now reached such a degree of relevance that it became the subject of a plenary discussion with the participation of the head of state at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, held in Russia on June 5-8, 2024. However, at the Forum, there was still no response from the President to this question; so many experts (mostly reflecting the opinion of the majority of the country’s population) remain in a state of anxious expectation about where Russia is going; whether the country has a clear understanding of the image of the future, which is necessary for the successful achievement of all the goals of the special military operation and for building the contours of a new Social Contract that should replace what can be called the paradigm of semi-colonial dependence on the West... The article uses an extensive database in the form of expert opinions, facts, and monitoring sociological surveys results. Scientific novelty of the approach consists, first of all, in a combination of various aspects of the social and political life of the country, which become the subject of our analysis. Among them are specific administrative decisions of the head of state, assessments of public opinion, views of representatives of big business, opinions of State Duma deputies, political and public figures, historians, economists, etc. In particular, the article presents the results of the vote in the lower house of Parliament on the approval of candidates for new members of the Government of the Russian Federation, as well as data from the open accounts of a number of large metallurgical corporations, indicating that the priorities of their activities do not correspond to the challenges that Russia has faced after the beginning of the special military operation.