Influence of population dynamics in the regions’ periphery on economic growth: Spatial features

The article examines the impact of agglomeration processes on the development of Russian regions in 2009–2022 and its features in the western and eastern regions. The aim of the study is to form macro regions with a close relationship between the indicators of the periphery and the growth of the region's economy and to construct equations explaining the features of their development. It has been revealed that the population growth in regional capitals has practically no effect on the dynamics and efficiency of the economy as a whole, and the impact of changes on the periphery of the regions is decisive. The western regions are influenced by the Moscow and Saint Petersburg agglomerations, and population migration from the periphery of half of the regions to the regional capital does not compensate for the outflow of population to the two megacities. As a result, the faster the population of the periphery of the western regions is declining, the slower their gross regional product is growing. The eastern regions are characterized by the absence of such centers of attraction, with cities of millions growing in several of them, but the positive migration balance is not comparable with the two megacities. Despite the movement to the west and south, the population of the periphery in the eastern regions is on average one and a half times larger than in the European part of the country, and is declining more slowly. The efficiency of the economy of the capitals of most eastern regions is higher than that of the periphery, as migration from the periphery to the capital contributes to economic growth in the latter. Thus, the faster the population of the periphery of the eastern regions decreases, the faster the gross regional product per capita grows. The concentration of population and other resources in the Moscow and Saint Petersburg agglomerations leads to their shortage, which slows down the economic growth of the western regions and the country as a whole. At the same time, there are territories that can develop successfully, but they need support, primarily in vocational education and improving the urban environment.