Possible risks of socio-economic development of the northern and arctic regions of Russia in modern geopolitical conditions (based on the results of expert surveys)

The purpose of the article is to identify possible risks in the socio-economic development of the northern and Arctic regions of the Russian Federation based on mass and expert surveys carried out by the authors. Methodological approaches to the study of such risks as the consequences of anti-Russian sanctions are considered, in terms of the effectiveness of their application and the level of terrorist threat¸ in connection with the special military operation carried out. Based on the analysis of extensive sociological information, including foreign , it was revealed that the effect expected by the developers from the application of sanctions did not happen, on the contrary, experts noted areas in which sanctions can contribute to the activation and use of domestic resources: trade, public catering, tourism, the service sector, entertainment. The problem of import substitution is indicated as the most difficult in activities that are significant for the North and the Russian Arctic, such as mining, manufacturing, electric power, and cargo transportation. A comparison of the results of surveys in 2017, 2022 and 2023 showed a decrease in the level of fears regarding a possible terrorist threat in the North and in the Russian Arctic.